Sen and Miller (2023) demonstrated that a scenario of Ambitious ZEV Sales encompassing a full phaseout of sales of new non-ZEV vehicles globally by 2045 can ensure that the road transport emissions trajectory is compatible with a 67% likelihood of achievement of a below-2°C pathway without overshoot. This study shows that a combination of additional strategies in the “All Out” scenario could further reduce emissions in line with a well-below 2°C pathway with the same parameters. This is similar to what a previous ICCT study, Graver et al., (2022, found is achievable for the aviation sector, but is still far from a pathway that aligns with 1.5°C. The sizeable work that remains is underscored by another finding of this study, that projected CO2 emissions from vehicles that are already on the road today would exceed the limited carbon budget remaining to avoid overshoot of 1.5°C. Indeed, the cumulative emissions from selling no new vehicles going forward are only 10 billion tonnes lower than the All Out scenario when no other measures are implemented.

Ending all car sales tomorrow is not a feasible option, but the strategies identified in this paper are, and are nearly as effective. In particular, Ambitious ZEV Sales for new vehicles combined with restricting the age of used vehicle sales to no more than 5 years for light-duty vehicles and no more than 8 years for heavy-duty vehicles (both with a three-year dispensation for Africa) could avoid an additional 61 billion tonnes of cumulative CO2 emissions globally; this contributes 42% of the emission reductions in the All Out scenario, more than any other two strategies combined. But it also highlights the scale of the challenge in reducing emissions from new and used vehicles in time to avoid overshoot of 1.5°C. While some additional strategies could be considered in future studies, carbon removal technologies may also need to play a role if in-sector efforts are not able to bridge this gap.

Additional Materials:
Expanded Methodology: Data and methods of analysis used in developing strategies to align global road transport with well below 2°c

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The 2022 study identified a total cumulative mitigation potential of 100 Gt CO2 between the Baseline and Ambitious scenario in the 2020–2050 time frame, of which announced targets were projected to avoid about 20 Gt CO2; this resulted in an “ambition gap” of 80 Gt CO2. This updated modeling shows that recently adopted policies will avoid about 17 Gt CO2 and following through on proposals and announced EV targets would avoid an additional 25 Gt CO2. Combined, recently adopted policies and announced proposals and EV targets have shrunk the ambition gap to 53 Gt CO2. However, even if a ZEV transition were achieved in line with our Ambitious scenario, a further 62 Gt CO2 would still need to be avoided by 2050 to align with the best chances of limiting warming to 1.7°C. For 1.5°C, an additional 123 Gt CO2 would need to be avoided compared to our Ambitious scenario.

There is additional mitigation potential in a variety of other measures, including avoid-and-shift policies for passenger and freight travel, improving conventional vehicle fuel efficiency beyond current policy targets, accelerating the removal of older vehicles from the fleet, and adjusting used vehicle import policies to accelerate ZEV uptake. The ICCT is partnering with the International Energy Agency, the International Transport Forum, the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, and the United Nations Environment Programme to research additional mitigation strategies that will build on this study.

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Three decarbonization scenarios—Action, Transformation, and Breakthrough—are analyzed along with a Baseline scenario, each built around six important parameters: (1) traffic; (2) aircraft technology; (3) operations; (4) zero-emission planes (ZEPs); (5) sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs); and (6) economic incentives.

Detailed findings of the study include:

• In the most ambitious (Breakthrough) scenario, early and sustained government intervention triggers widespread investments in zero-carbon aircraft and fuels, peaking fossil jet fuel use in 2025 and zeroing it out by 2050. Aviation CO₂ is cut by more than 90% below 2019 levels in 2050; cumulative emissions are consistent with 1.75ºC pathway under which aviation doesn’t increase its share of a global carbon budget.
• SAFs account for the largest share of CO₂ reduction potential, varying between 59% and 64% across scenarios. Improvements in aircraft technical and operational efficiency contribute an additional one-third of CO₂ mitigation. Zero-emission planes powered by hydrogen account for up to 5% of emission reductions in 2050.
• Under all scenarios, fuel and ticket costs rise along with the introduction of SAFs. Under the Breakthrough scenario, fuel costs increase by 34% and 70% in 2030 and 2050, respectively, due to the adoption of these more expensive fuels. Thus, policies like a SAF mandate, low carbon fuel standard, carbon taxes, and/or a frequent flier levy will be needed to bridge the price gap between alternative and fossil jet fuels.

Overall, we conclude that new technologies under development can cut aviation CO₂ to near zero in 2050, but that immediate action is needed from governments to peak emissions this decade to put aviation on a 1.75ºC pathway. Either atmospheric carbon removals or curbs to traffic growth will be needed to meet a 1.5ºC temperature pathway.

Figure. Cumulative global aviation CO₂ emissions under various modeling scenarios, 2020-2050

This paper was revised on 30 June, 2023 to correct captions on Figures 10 (ES-2) and B-1 and to amend an estimate of projected ticket price increases. After taking into account fuel efficiency gains through 2050, ticket prices are expected to rise by about 6% under the Breakthrough case. The original can be found here.

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And greenhouse gas emissions do not even fully describe the environmental challenges posed by rising demand for transportation in a system that remains dependent on burning fossil fuel. The public health toll of air pollution, especially in large cities, remains unacceptably high. More than 90% of the world’s population lives in areas that do not meet the air-quality guidelines set by the World Health Organization—including places, like parts of the United States and Europe, that do not habitually think of themselves as suffering from air pollution.

Climate and health impacts are inherently coupled. The bottom line is that a sector almost exclusively dependent on a single energy source, petroleum, operating on infrastructure that represents trillions of dollars of investment, must change substantially in little more than a generation.

Many people have engaged these problems. Policymakers at all levels of government are working to implement new environmental protections and other measures. The automotive industry is investing in the development and deployment of new technologies. Philanthropies are directing large sums to support climate action. Advocacy and consumer groups are launching campaigns to raise awareness and put pressure on decisionmakers. Scientists and academic institutions are conducting research and analyses to support decision-making.

The ICCT works with all these stakeholders. This document summarizes our own vision, reached after long internal deliberation, for decarbonizing the transport sector. Vison 2050 addresses four central questions:

1. What is the baseline trajectory of global transportation emissions from 2020 to 2050 by country and by vehicle segment?
2. What is the magnitude of reductions needed if the global transport sector is to contribute to keeping global temperature rise below 1.5˚C?
3. What is an ambitious yet feasible set of policies and technologies for decarbonizing the transportation sector by mid-century?
4. What are the highest priority focus areas over the next five years?

For road, air, and maritime transportation it articulates a set of targets for greenhouse gas emissions that we collectively must reach if we are to keep global warming below 1.5º C, and a series of steps that we collectively can take to reach them. In short, it summarizes our strategic approach to meeting the climate crisis.

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