Today India has about 4 million trucks on the road and these carry about 70% of the country’s domestic freight. With the freight activity of trucks projected to grow by more than two times by 2050 and trucks already responsible for about half the well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions from on-road transport, adopting zero-emission technologies such as battery electric and fuel-cell electric trucks is critical to decarbonizing the transport sector and achieving India’s climate goals.  

But a successful transition to zero-emission trucks will require extensive data, including about truck travel patterns and operations. In India, the data that’s currently available to the public has gaps and is not in a form that’s useful for researchers and policymakers. Fortunately, there are several ways to begin to fill these gaps. 

It’s not difficult to see where the data challenges come from. For one, trucking in India is largely unorganized: 80% of the operators have small fleets of fewer than 10 trucks. Beyond the sheer multiplicity of truck operators, small operators tend not to log data about their operations like larger fleets do. For another, there is limited data published by the national government. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) maintains the national register of vehicles registered by regional transport offices and it provides up-to-date information on the registration of different types of vehicles disaggregated by fuel type, vehicle classes, and region of registration. MoRTH also publishes an annual road transport yearbook that reports national-level freight activity in tonne-km estimated as a function of gross domestic product, but researchers find that these estimates are significantly overestimated. Furthermore, data on the age of vehicles, annual vehicle activity, load factor, and energy consumption is scarce. This results in a wide range of baseline energy consumption estimates and projections for India’s truck fleet.  

International examples offer ways to improve. The European Union implemented a regulation in 2012 that mandates the collection of various data on road freight transport through regular surveys about fleet operators, their operations, and goods transported. In addition, the EU-funded European Transport Policy Information System (ETISplus) project consolidated various datasets into a new reference dataset of road freight transport at various levels: major socio-economic region (NUTS1), states (NUTS2), and district or county (NUTS3). This was instrumental in estimating truck movement on the European highway network and developing recommendations for electric vehicle charging infrastructure deployment targets in the European Union for 2030.  

Similarly, in the United States, highway statistics compiled by the Federal Highway Authority contain annual average daily traffic count at different road sections from state transport agencies through the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), which uses equipment such as loop detectors and laser sensors. This dataset has supported research on county-level zero-emission truck charging and highway hydrogen refueling needs. 

With these in mind, here are some opportunities that we see for India. First, there are more than 1,000 toll plazas on national and state highways that already use FASTag, a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)-based electronic toll collection system that was launched in 2014. Additionally, the MoRTH is conducting pilots for an automatic number plate recognition system and plans to introduce GPS-based toll collection to replace toll plazas in the long term. Toll tax collection regularly captures data on daily traffic disaggregated by different vehicle segments. The National Highway Authority of India (NHAI), under the MoRTH, is responsible for developing, managing, and maintaining national highways, and this data could potentially be captured and processed by the NHAI or an expert agency to estimate traffic counts disaggregated by vehicle types at different road sections and at different times of the day. The NHAI or MoRTH could then publish and maintain this dataset in the public domain. Figure 1 shows what the data flow process could look like. 

Figure 1. Traffic count data that already exists at toll plazas through FASTag and how it could be processed and published.

Second, India implemented an electronic way bill (e-way bill or EWB) system under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime and it essentially contains the details related to the shipment or consignment of cargo. The consignor generates the bill for transporting goods of more than INR 50,000 in value and it contains a great deal of information on the origin and destination, mode of transport, vehicle type, and goods transported. (The goods exempted from GST are also exempted from the e-way bill system.) More recently, the e-way bill system was integrated with the FASTag and Vahan (national vehicle registry by MoRTH) systems to facilitate the real-time tracking of truck movement to curb tax evasion. This data could be processed by either NHAI or an equivalent expert agency to estimate traffic volume counts and origin and destination matrices in a way that’s useful for researchers and policymakers. MoRTH can then manage the dataset and publish it at regular intervals. 

The Directorate General of Commerce Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), under the Ministry of Commerce, already manages and publishes data on the interstate movement of goods via rail and air, and acknowledges the wide data gap on the interstate movement of goods by road. The data generated by the e-way bill system can help bridge that gap. Figure 2 shows a potential roadmap for such a data-collection system using e-way bills. 

Figure 2. Truck movement data that could be collected through EWB.

Third, as part of PM GatiShakti, the national master plan for multi-modal connectivity, a Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP) was launched to enable seamless data sharing among government and private entities that are directly or indirectly involved in the Indian logistics eco-system. It enables real-time inventory management and monitoring of cargo movements for shippers, identifies demand for transporters, and serves as a planning tool for policymakers to improve logistics in India. Thus, there are already a few different avenues for road freight data collection in India and what’s left is to make the data available in the public domain.  

The future of clean trucking in India hinges in part on our ability to effectively gather, analyze, and leverage truck data from multiple sources. At present, independent research groups are carrying out small-scale surveys in select geographies to fill data gaps and inform policies. This is a highly inefficient use of time and resources.  

As India transitions to zero-emission trucks, truck travel patterns and operations data become critical for designing new vehicles, effectively deploying supporting refueling infrastructure, and crafting a variety of policies and programs for decarbonization. Government bodies and agencies could collaborate to address the information gap, and only once it’s bridged can we unlock the full potential of India’s trucking industry. 

In Germany, expanding the market for used battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is likely to play an important role in broadening access to these vehicles. As the purchase price of used BEVs can still be cost prohibitive to some groups, a larger supply of used BEVs may help to improve their affordability. So, what is the current state of the used BEV market in Germany and what can the government do to accelerate its expansion?

According to the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt, or the Federal Motor Transport Authority of Germany, in 2022, used BEVs were around 69,000 of the 5.6 million vehicle ownership transfers that occurred in Germany, a 1.2% share (Figure 1). In comparison, BEVs were 17.7% of the over 3 million new vehicles that were registered that year. In 2023, the share of BEVs in used car transfers rose slightly to 1.6%, and for new vehicles, BEVs were an 18.4% share.

The number and share of used BEVs in vehicle ownership transfers rose through most of 2023. The highest recorded share of BEVs in the used vehicle market that year was 2.3% in September, when over 11,400 vehicles were transferred. The increasing number of used BEVs in the market is reflective of the higher number of BEVs that entered the stock starting in 2020, as the average holding period for leased cars is around 2 to 4 years for company cars and 6 years for privately owned cars. In 2020, BEVs were 0.3% of the nearly 48.8 million vehicles in the on-road stock in Germany and that share reached 2.1% in 2023.

As shown in Table 1, the growth of used BEVs from 2022 to 2023 (+40%) outpaced the overall markets for new and used cars, which both grew by 7% during that period. The only fuel types that had higher growth shares than used BEVs were used plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) and used hybrid vehicles, both of which saw higher year-to-year share increases with 45% and 44%, respectively. New hybrid vehicles also saw a higher growth rate of 43%. That new PHEVs shrunk by 52% from 2022 to 2023 was likely due to the phaseout of the PHEV purchase incentive at the end of 2022. Among internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the number of used gasoline car registrations grew by only 2% compared with new registrations at 13%. Used diesel cars grew by a larger margin of 10%.

In 2023, AutoScout24, the largest European online vehicle marketplace, reported that prices of used BEVs dropped substantially while prices of used gasoline and diesel vehicles stayed relatively constant (Figure 2). From January to November 2023, the index price, or the weighted average price over time, of used BEVs fell by 23%; for used gasoline and diesel cars, prices dropped by 6% and 2%, respectively, over the same time period. This is likely due to a growing supply of used BEVs for sale and a larger number of more affordable, non-premium BEVs being available for purchase.

• A BEV mandate for fleets would require that corporate fleets be made up of a specific percentage of new BEVs within a designated time frame. This would have broad climate benefits, as fleets in Germany made up roughly one-third of all new vehicle registrations in 2022. Beyond the environmental benefits, adding thousands of new BEVs to the on-road stock would be a boost to the secondhand market. The companies that purchase BEVs would also save money over time because of the lower total operating costs of BEVs when compared with gasoline and diesel ICEVs.
• A bonus-malus system would levy fees on the purchase of ICEVs and use the funds to provide financial incentives to purchase BEVs. If designed to be revenue-neutral, the system could be self-sustaining and would not require funds from the government budget. A staggered bonus based on vehicle size, with larger bonuses for smaller vehicles, would also promote affordability because smaller cars are typically less expensive.
• Interest-free loans for used BEV purchase for those with lower incomes can eliminate the additional financial burdens that come from traditional loans with higher interest rates. Some countries, such as Scotland and France, offer interest-free or low-interest loans for the purchase of used BEVs. A program such as this in Germany could be designed to benefit those with lower incomes by capping eligibility based on the applicants’ taxable gross income. It additionally could promote smaller, more affordable vehicle models by limiting loan eligibility based on vehicle size and price.

Continued development of the used BEV market will allow more Germans who are dependent on a car to participate in the transition from ICEVs to BEVs. Taking actions to accelerate the growth of this burgeoning market will also help bring the country closer to accomplishing its climate goals.

India’s road sector is responsible for 90% of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is a key measure to reduce these emissions. While fiscal incentives like tax credits and subsidies have been shown to aid in promoting EV adoption, non-fiscal incentives can also help lower barriers and encourage consumers to switch from conventional vehicles to EVs. Late last year, at an IEA training, I gave a talk about non-fiscal incentives in India and I’ll cover some of the highlights here.

First, our recent study shed light on the use and proposed use of non-fiscal incentives to promote EVs across Indian states and union territories up to September 2022. We compared this with fiscal incentives and, as illustrated in the chart below, found that most states have prioritized fiscal incentives over non-fiscal measures. Additionally, the only states that have proposed more than three non-fiscal incentives are Maharashtra and West Bengal—both have four non-fiscal incentives in their state EV policies. Between the two states, Maharashtra focuses more on policies that give EV drivers preferential status on the road than West Bengal.

Figure. Fiscal and non-fiscal incentives in the EV polices of states and union territories in India as of September 2022.

Maharashtra is worth dwelling on because it ranked second in India in terms of EV ownership (absolute number of vehicles across all segments) as of September 2023. The state’s efforts to deploy public charging stations were also evident in another recent ICCT study, which found Maharashtra topped all states and union territories in India in terms of public electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) stock. Maharashtra has proposed the following incentives: 

1. Creation of green zones  
2. Reserved parking for EVs  
3. Incentives for efficient charging infrastructure rollouts like digital transactions for mobility cards to aid EV users 
4. Allocation of public land for charging points 

Like Maharashtra, West Bengal has proposed creating green zones and incentivizing efficient charging roll-out strategies like mobility cards for EV users. It also suggests modifications in the building code for provisioning of EV charge stations in both private and commercial buildings; this would be incorporated as amendments for existing buildings and is also applicable to new buildings.  

By complementing fiscal initiatives with non-fiscal incentives, policymakers could expect a variety of benefits that are grouped into a few broad categories below. Non-fiscal incentives can help to: 

Enhance the likelihood of realizing the environmental benefits of EVs. When heavily polluting combustion engines are prevented from operating in a green zone, this bestows a privilege upon EV owners. Through such measures, governments and local authorities both reduce local pollution and create a sense of exclusivity and convenience for EV owners that can make the transition away from combustion vehicles more appealing. 

Support infrastructure development. Charging infrastructure is a critical component of widespread EV adoption. Governments can offer incentives to businesses and property owners to establish charging stations. Additionally, facilitating the installation of a charging network through strategies like issuing no-objection certificates in parking spaces, making public land available for charging, and organizing tenders can help stimulate the market for charging infrastructure. This ultimately benefits EV owners. 

Improve public awareness and understanding. Non-fiscal incentives can involve disseminating accurate information and promoting EV-related initiatives that help consumers make informed decisions and dispel uncertainties about the vehicles. Governments and civil society organizations can launch campaigns, workshops, and events to showcase the advantages of EVs, dispel myths, and address concerns about things like battery life during extreme weather, fire safety, range anxiety, and maintenance needs. For example, the Go Electric campaign was launched by the Ministry of Power and led by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency in February 2021; it created awareness of the consumer benefits of EVs at the national level and boosted the confidence of EV manufacturers and consumers alike.  

Foster collaboration and partnerships. This happens among stakeholders including automakers, utility companies, and local governments. By incentivizing EV partnerships, governments can encourage the development of innovative solutions such as vehicle-to-grid technology and smart charging systems. These collaborations can accelerate the growth of the EV market and provide consumers with enhanced features like advanced battery technology, improved safety, and services like wireless EV charging and seamless payment options. There is also the opportunity to share promising strategies for battery recycling and best practices for closing the loop of battery utilization. 

The states and union territories in India that have not yet focused on non-fiscal incentives in their EV policies have a good opportunity to look at the benefits described here. Fortunately for the climate and public health, there’s evidence that more are paying attention recently. Jharkhand notified an EV policy in October 2022 that provides lane and parking preferences to EVs. In November 2022, Manipur released a new electric mobility policy that includes reserved areas in tourism spots where the state is to provide transport services in an environmentally friendly manner by exclusively using EVs.  

Also, in a new EV policy that Tamil Nadu released in February 2023, the government is to declare six cities as EV cities. In each of these a small mobility program will be designed with a focus on EVs, and the program is to prepare a roadmap that includes the electrification of three-wheelers and buses in phases over 10 years.  

Similarly, Uttar Pradesh released EV manufacturing and mobility policy in November 2022. Green routes are to be identified in each district by 2025 and there are to be electric buses on each of these routes. Urban local bodies may identify spaces for reserved parking in public lots that contain EV charging.  

Non-fiscal measures such as the ones I discussed here can offer important benefits in the long run by supporting the EV transition. Policymakers in India and elsewhere would do well to consider steps to adopt them. 

Is demand for electric vehicles (EVs) slowing in the United States? The short answer is no. Light-duty EV sales data from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation shows continued and significant growth in the United States from 2021 through the third quarter of 2023. Figure 1 illustrates the increase in quarterly sales (bars, left axis) and EV sales shares (red line, right axis). EV sales increased from about 125,000 in Q1 2021 to 185,000 in Q4 2021 and from about 300,000 in Q1 2023 to 375,000 in Q3 2023. The year 2023 also marked the first time annual U.S. EV sales surpassed 1 million, and this was achieved by Q3; sales through the first three quarters of 2023 were about 58% higher than the same period in 2022.

Figure 1. U.S. light-duty electric vehicle sales and sales shares by quarter. Source: Alliance for Automotive Innovation, https://www.autosinnovate.org/EVDashboard.

Since Q3 2021, EV sales have increased every quarter, and the share of total light-duty vehicle sales that EVs represent isn’t shrinking, either. The share of new sales that are plug-in electric increased from about 3% in Q1 2021 to about 7% in 2022 and then reached more than 10% in Q3 2023. For some rough context, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Automotive Trends Report shows that EV sales shares have grown at a faster rate than sales shares of conventional hybrids that don’t have a plug: It took about 25 years for hybrids to reach a 10% market share, compared to about 12 years for EVs.

Additionally, state-level data shows that several states are far ahead of the national averages shown in Figure 1. California leads the country and EVs were nearly 27% of sales in the state through September 2023; this means that more than one in every four new light-duty vehicles sold were battery electric or plug-in hybrid electric. Another 12 states—Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, Connecticut, Virginia, Vermont, and Arizona—and the District of Columbia had EV sales shares between 10% and 20% through Q3 2023.

We also looked at the U.S. EV sales data by automaker and Figure 2 shows this data, with the companies stacked in order from highest (bottom) to lowest sales for the first three quarters of 2023. Most of these automakers sold more EVs in Q2 or Q3 2023 than in any other quarter in the chart, and each company except Ford sold more EVs in the first three quarters of 2023 than they did in all of 2022. Furthermore, each company shown sold more EVs in Q3 2023 than they did in Q3 2022. For example, third-quarter sales from 2022 to 2023 increased by 40%–60% for BMW, Tesla, and Volkswagen, about 115%–125% for Toyota and Stellantis, and by about 150%–180% for Hyundai and all others combined.

Figure 2. Quarterly U.S. light-duty electric vehicle sales by automaker. Source: Atlas EV hub, https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/automakers-dashboard/.

This data echoes that collected by other researchers and several automakers. Indeed, BNEF found no signs of a global EV slowdown and said that such reports have been “greatly exaggerated.” Hyundai and Kia reported strong U.S. EV demand. Volvo’s CEO said there’s no slowdown of EV orders and he expects EVs to keep driving sales. Moreover, although Ford and General Motors are scaling back near-term production because of slowing demand relative to previous forecasts, both companies still plan on selling more EVs than ever before and “remain committed to an electric future.”

Beyond the strong sales, the latest consumer survey data by McKinsey and J.D. Power show that intent to purchase EVs is increasing, and a Consumer Reports survey found that 30% of licensed drivers would not even consider a gasoline vehicle for their next purchase or lease. The survey data also show that EV affordability and charging availability are key concerns. Fortunately, new tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will provide up to $7,500 for new EVs plus several thousands of dollars for batteries. This combined with continued expected manufacturing cost reductions will help make more EV models cheaper than their gasoline counterparts, and there are dozens of new EV models across more vehicle classes and price points coming in 2024 and beyond. In terms of charging infrastructure, new public and private sector announcements sum up to more than $21 billion in investments and this is expected to increase the number of public chargers from about 160,000 in 2023 to nearly 1 million by 2030.

There’s a lot at stake in the transition, as EVs can substantially help reduce climate pollution, support clean air and public health, and bring economic benefits, jobs, and industrial competitiveness. Most automakers typically aren’t quick to vocalize slowing demand for their products, so it’s worth remembering, also, that any talk of a lack of EV demand in the United States coincides with a push to weaken proposed new federal pollution standards. The true story from the data is strongly positive for EVs. There’s never been a better time for new standards to build on the sales momentum detailed above and give a strong signal to automakers, charging infrastructure providers, consumers, and other stakeholders to invest in EVs with confidence.