• The introduction of the Euro 4 emission standard in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2018 significantly reduced NO_x and PM emissions from light-duty vehicles in Abu Dhabi, especially diesel-powered ones. Even so, these vehicles emit 10 to 15 times higher NO_x and PM emissions than average vehicles of the same model year in Europe. Adoption of the Euro 6 “d” stage or higher emission standard in the UAE would support significantly lower real-world NO_x emission levels.
• The Euro VI buses that Abu Dhabi introduced in 2019 and 2020 showed NO_x emissions 94% lower and PM emissions 86% lower than other buses in the emirate certified to the Euro IV minimum. We suggest that the Abu Dhabi government continue to acquire buses with minimum Euro VI standards, and preferably of the “D” stage or higher, as data from Europe shows those buses offer the best emissions performance.
• Taxis more than 5 years old were responsible for at least 55% of total NO_x emissions from taxis despite comprising only around 17% of the taxi fleet in Abu Dhabi. These vehicles were driving under a derogation of their franchise awaiting renewal and were estimated to emit up to 15 times their type-approval limit.
• Electrification is the fastest way to reduce harmful tailpipe emissions from motor vehicles and we suggest that Abu Dhabi accelerate the electrification of its public transport, government, and taxi fleet by setting zero-emission vehicle targets. At the federal level, policies such as a zero-emission vehicle mandate or CO₂ standard for new vehicles would foster the uptake of electric vehicles and help individual emirates align with federal air quality and climate targets.

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Transportation was responsible for 7% of deaths caused by exposure to PM_2.5 and ozone in 2015 in South Africa, and of these deaths, 48% are attributed to on-road diesel vehicles. Severely outdated vehicle emission standards have contributed to this deadly air pollution: the current HDV emission standards in South Africa are Euro II, first introduced in Europe more than 20 years ago and phased-out long ago there and in other major economies. South Africa has not updated its official emission standard regulations since adopting Euro II standards in 2006. Diesel engines that lack modern emission control devices produce PM_2.5, soot, nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and other pollutants in large quantities.

Our analysis finds that South Africa would enjoy substantial benefits in adopting Euro VI standards for its diesel HDV fleet. The announcement of a 10 ppm sulfur diesel requirement by 2023 provides a great window of opportunity for modern emission standards to sync with fuel quality improvements.

With a timeline of implementing Euro VI standards in 2024, the societal benefits associated with reduced HDV tailpipe emissions can outweigh the costs of technology advancements and operating expenses by a ratio of 8.2:1 (5% discounted) between 2021 and 2050. By contrast, delaying the implementation of 10 ppm sulfur diesel requirements or Euro VI standards will diminish the health benefits and lead to a net welfare loss for South Africa.

Future analyses could expand on this study and examine the potential air quality impacts and the costs and benefits of electrification in combination with an improved understanding of reduced non-fatal NO_x emissions under Euro VII aftertreatment technologies, potential HDV fuel economy or CO₂ regulations, and fleet renewal.

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Electric shares of total vehicle sales in Africa are well below levels found in many developing countries in other regions. The EV shares are even lower if imported used vehicles are taken into account, since about 1.5 million used vehicles are imported into Africa every year.

Figure 2. EV sales share (%) of passenger vehicles in non-ZEV Transition Council (ZEVTC6) countries, by key region, based on available data for 2020.

Regarding EV policies, a few African countries, including Cape Verde, Kenya, and Morocco, have announced non-legally binding EV targets. For example, Cape Verde has set 100% EV targets for new sales of passenger cars by 2035 and urban buses by 2040, as well as interim electrification objectives for fleet segments—including passenger cars, urban buses, and government vehicles—and for the nation’s charging infrastructure.

The continent features many opportunities and success stories in the areas of electric shared mobility, electrification of two- and three-wheelers, e-mobility business, manufacturing, incentives, R&D, and charging infrastructure. It also faces a number of challenges in accelerating a ZEV transition, such as import of used internal combustion vehicles, absence of ZEV regulations and policies, lack of technical skills, and unreliable power supply and off-grid rural communities, to name a few.

Policy recommendations that could help advance the ZEV transition in Africa include: incentivizing ZEV manufacturers and importers to improve ZEV access; facilitating ZEV production, imports, and fleet purchases; reducing ZEV cost through trade agreement and international financing; integrating infrastructure development with renewable energy and off-grid solutions; enabling innovative e-mobility business and financing models in shared mobility and public transportation; and demonstrating ZEV technology through exhibition, experience center, and pilot projects to raise public awareness.

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This first of two papers presents an assessment of technology and fuel pathways, emissions modeling, and total cost of ownership analysis. The authors find that although DDF buses provide a minor GHG emissions benefit relative to older diesel buses in the current fleet, the benefit is not enough to offset the increased activity projected for the fleet in the future. The ongoing procurement of DDF buses with no DDF optimization program and no change in the existing fuel mix would increase, not decrease, fleetwide GHG emissions. This would not contribute to achieving South Africa’s climate goals.

Nonetheless, other technology and fuel pathways that are available to Metrobus could meet and even exceed goals. Results show the procurement of dedicated Euro VI gas engines in the near term, accompanied by a transition from fossil gas to biomethane, can deliver a 55% reduction in fleetwide GHG emissions by 2040. Alternatively, the procurement of Euro VI diesel engines in the near term, operated without coal-to-liquids fuel and followed within 10 years by the exclusive procurement of zero-emission engines, would deliver a 73% reduction in fleetwide GHG emissions by 2040. Part II of this work examines the environmental and operational performance of the DDF buses by focusing on fuel consumption and real-world emissions.

The post South Africa flagship on green mobility: Johannesburg Metrobus, Part I: Greening the future fleet appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The PEMS tests reveal that, compared to the legacy Metrobus fleet, the DDF buses provide significant reductions in nitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide emissions. Although a 20-year analysis of global warming potential also shows that total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the DDF buses are slightly lower than the legacy buses, excess methane emissions mean higher GHG emissions from the DDF buses than all other technology options available today. This suggests that DDF can be an effective intermediate technology toward soot-free, cleaner technology, but in order to deliver long-term reductions in the air pollution and GHG emissions of the fleet, Metrobus must move beyond Euro V DDF technology.

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Transit operators in Polokwane are using the best diesel technology available to them now. Continuing to do so for their service expansion goals won’t reduce ensure reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and local pollution over time. However, there are alternative bus technologies and fuel pathways that are consistent with the goal of decarbonization.

Four technology options were explored for adoption in Polokwane: diesel Euro VI, diesel hybrid Euro VI, compressed natural gas (CNG) Euro VI, and battery electric buses (BEB). The report compares costs across technologies and adapted to local conditions through a total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis, which considers the upfront purchase costs of buses and infrastructure as well as the operational costs of fuel/energy use and maintenance.

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More than three years into the partnership, what progress have these cities made in building soot-free bus fleets?

Let’s start by noting that the global bus market has changed dramatically since September 2017. Euro VI-equivalent heavy-duty emission standards entered into force in China and India. Vietnam and Colombia announced schedules to advance fuel quality and emission standards. And in cities and countries worldwide, laws and regulations promoting electromobility have been adopted to address the climate crisis, with zero-emission buses a key component in most of them. The effects have been noticeable: Global Industry Partners are selling soot-free products in 14 cities on six continents (blue and green dots on the map).

This map confirms that the partnership is advancing towards the global goal of 20 cities hosting soot-free technologies; manufacturers deserve credit for the progress to date. At the regional level, the map shows that Latin American countries are benefitting from having a wide range of manufacturers willing to bring soot-free products. On the other hand, Africa seems underserved, with 4 of the 8 cities not covered (brown dots). The challenge in Africa continues to be the uncertain supply of ultra-low sulfur diesel and slow progress in transitioning vehicle emission standards to Euro VI. In the African countries where we did find soot-free products, CNG was the preferred technology. In Turkey, the partners were not offering soot-free products although the country has been at Euro VI standards since 2015.

The most remarkable change is happening on the zero-emission bus front. Chinese OEMs are quick to react to calls for electric buses and are eager to explore new opportunities. Global industry partner BYD, and other bus manufacturers including Yutong, Foton and Zhongtong–which also belong to a sister-industry partnership in Latin America for e-buses called the Zero Emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA)–are running pilots, winning tenders and delivering large numbers of buses to major cities in Latin America and beyond. As a result, Latin America has the largest e-bus fleets outside China, with more than 1500 Chinese-built electric buses operating as of March 2021.

Faced with competition from the up-and-coming Chinese, the old guard manufacturers of internal combustion engine buses and trucks – Cummins, Scania and Volvo among them – are each responding in their own ways. Scania pledges to cut CO2 emissions from its own operations by 50% by 2025 and reduce emissions from its products by 20% during the same period. Volvo’s target is to become a net-zero emissions company by 2050. Achieving these goals will require both companies increasingly to shift production to hybrid and zero-emission vehicles in all markets. Cummins, an independent engine and powertrain supplier, provides electric powertrain systems to electric bus maker Gillig. Daimler, which is not a CCAC Soot Free industry partner, set a more modest goal of selling only carbon-neutral (tank-to-wheel) new trucks and buses in Europe, Japan and NAFTA by 2039.

The work is not complete but positive signs are evident. Good news came out of Western Africa in early 2020, when members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced a harmonized effort to import and produce 50 ppm sulfur gasoline and diesel in 2021 and 2025. 50 ppm sulfur diesel isn’t the right fuel to enable soot-free vehicle deployments, but this level of commitment and progress in some of the world’s least regulated fuel markets is extremely encouraging. Meanwhile, in Latin America, Euro VI-equivalent and electric bus tenders are being required in many of the latest tenders in Santiago and Bogota.

On the other hand, in the past year Brazil and Mexico rolled back their scheduled Euro VI-equivalent emission standards–bad news for the environment and consumers. In spite of this setback, electric solutions are increasingly being pursued to bypass fuel quality and emission standard deadlocks. This way, buses will eliminate tailpipe emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases altogether. Jakarta has been doing exactly this – leapfrogging from highly polluting Euro II to electric buses to modernize its BRT system, the largest in the world.

As the world slowly recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recession, millions of residents in urban areas of the developing world will once again rely on public transit for affordable transportation. The challenge is to bring soot-free and zero emission buses to these cities that need them.

This blog was supported by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition.

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