International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/ Independent research to benefit public health and mitigate climate change Wed, 14 Feb 2024 15:32:52 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/favicon-150x150.png International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/ 32 32 Lost in transit: Opportunities to remove public data roadblocks in Indian trucking https://theicct.org/lost-in-transit-opportunities-to-remove-public-data-roadblocks-in-indian-trucking-feb24/ Wed, 14 Feb 2024 17:30:56 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36469 Explores ways to process and publish data collected about truck operations in India to support the transition to zero-emission trucks.

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Today India has about 4 million trucks on the road and these carry about 70% of the country’s domestic freight. With the freight activity of trucks projected to grow by more than two times by 2050 and trucks already responsible for about half the well-to-wheel CO2 emissions from on-road transport, adopting zero-emission technologies such as battery electric and fuel-cell electric trucks is critical to decarbonizing the transport sector and achieving India’s climate goals.  

But a successful transition to zero-emission trucks will require extensive data, including about truck travel patterns and operations. In India, the data that’s currently available to the public has gaps and is not in a form that’s useful for researchers and policymakers. Fortunately, there are several ways to begin to fill these gaps. 

It’s not difficult to see where the data challenges come from. For one, trucking in India is largely unorganized: 80% of the operators have small fleets of fewer than 10 trucks. Beyond the sheer multiplicity of truck operators, small operators tend not to log data about their operations like larger fleets do. For another, there is limited data published by the national government. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) maintains the national register of vehicles registered by regional transport offices and it provides up-to-date information on the registration of different types of vehicles disaggregated by fuel type, vehicle classes, and region of registration. MoRTH also publishes an annual road transport yearbook that reports national-level freight activity in tonne-km estimated as a function of gross domestic product, but researchers find that these estimates are significantly overestimated. Furthermore, data on the age of vehicles, annual vehicle activity, load factor, and energy consumption is scarce. This results in a wide range of baseline energy consumption estimates and projections for India’s truck fleet.  

International examples offer ways to improve. The European Union implemented a regulation in 2012 that mandates the collection of various data on road freight transport through regular surveys about fleet operators, their operations, and goods transported. In addition, the EU-funded European Transport Policy Information System (ETISplus) project consolidated various datasets into a new reference dataset of road freight transport at various levels: major socio-economic region (NUTS1), states (NUTS2), and district or county (NUTS3). This was instrumental in estimating truck movement on the European highway network and developing recommendations for electric vehicle charging infrastructure deployment targets in the European Union for 2030.  

Similarly, in the United States, highway statistics compiled by the Federal Highway Authority contain annual average daily traffic count at different road sections from state transport agencies through the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), which uses equipment such as loop detectors and laser sensors. This dataset has supported research on county-level zero-emission truck charging and highway hydrogen refueling needs. 

With these in mind, here are some opportunities that we see for India. First, there are more than 1,000 toll plazas on national and state highways that already use FASTag, a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)-based electronic toll collection system that was launched in 2014. Additionally, the MoRTH is conducting pilots for an automatic number plate recognition system and plans to introduce GPS-based toll collection to replace toll plazas in the long term. Toll tax collection regularly captures data on daily traffic disaggregated by different vehicle segments. The National Highway Authority of India (NHAI), under the MoRTH, is responsible for developing, managing, and maintaining national highways, and this data could potentially be captured and processed by the NHAI or an expert agency to estimate traffic counts disaggregated by vehicle types at different road sections and at different times of the day. The NHAI or MoRTH could then publish and maintain this dataset in the public domain. Figure 1 shows what the data flow process could look like. 

Figure 1. Traffic count data that already exists at toll plazas through FASTag and how it could be processed and published.

Second, India implemented an electronic way bill (e-way bill or EWB) system under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime and it essentially contains the details related to the shipment or consignment of cargo. The consignor generates the bill for transporting goods of more than INR 50,000 in value and it contains a great deal of information on the origin and destination, mode of transport, vehicle type, and goods transported. (The goods exempted from GST are also exempted from the e-way bill system.) More recently, the e-way bill system was integrated with the FASTag and Vahan (national vehicle registry by MoRTH) systems to facilitate the real-time tracking of truck movement to curb tax evasion. This data could be processed by either NHAI or an equivalent expert agency to estimate traffic volume counts and origin and destination matrices in a way that’s useful for researchers and policymakers. MoRTH can then manage the dataset and publish it at regular intervals. 

The Directorate General of Commerce Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), under the Ministry of Commerce, already manages and publishes data on the interstate movement of goods via rail and air, and acknowledges the wide data gap on the interstate movement of goods by road. The data generated by the e-way bill system can help bridge that gap. Figure 2 shows a potential roadmap for such a data-collection system using e-way bills. 

Figure 2. Truck movement data that could be collected through EWB.

Third, as part of PM GatiShakti, the national master plan for multi-modal connectivity, a Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP) was launched to enable seamless data sharing among government and private entities that are directly or indirectly involved in the Indian logistics eco-system. It enables real-time inventory management and monitoring of cargo movements for shippers, identifies demand for transporters, and serves as a planning tool for policymakers to improve logistics in India. Thus, there are already a few different avenues for road freight data collection in India and what’s left is to make the data available in the public domain.  

The future of clean trucking in India hinges in part on our ability to effectively gather, analyze, and leverage truck data from multiple sources. At present, independent research groups are carrying out small-scale surveys in select geographies to fill data gaps and inform policies. This is a highly inefficient use of time and resources.  

As India transitions to zero-emission trucks, truck travel patterns and operations data become critical for designing new vehicles, effectively deploying supporting refueling infrastructure, and crafting a variety of policies and programs for decarbonization. Government bodies and agencies could collaborate to address the information gap, and only once it’s bridged can we unlock the full potential of India’s trucking industry. 

Authors

Harsimran Kaur
Researcher

Sunitha Anup
Researcher

Related Publications
DECARBONIZING INDIA’S ROAD TRANSPORT: A META-ANALYSIS OF ROAD TRANSPORT EMISSIONS MODELS

Analyzes several of India’s road transport energy and emissions models by comparing key assumptions, energy use, and CO2 emissions by vehicle and fuel type.

Zero-emission vehicles
India

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Keep up the good sales: Ways to support the market for used BEVs in Germany https://theicct.org/keep-up-the-good-sales-ways-to-support-market-used-bevs-germany-feb24/ Tue, 13 Feb 2024 21:00:21 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36961 Expanding the used battery electric vehicle (BEV) market can help alleviate financial barriers to the technology and promote equitable access to BEVs across the broad population.

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In Germany, expanding the market for used battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is likely to play an important role in broadening access to these vehicles. As the purchase price of used BEVs can still be cost prohibitive to some groups, a larger supply of used BEVs may help to improve their affordability. So, what is the current state of the used BEV market in Germany and what can the government do to accelerate its expansion?

According to the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt, or the Federal Motor Transport Authority of Germany, in 2022, used BEVs were around 69,000 of the 5.6 million vehicle ownership transfers that occurred in Germany, a 1.2% share (Figure 1). In comparison, BEVs were 17.7% of the over 3 million new vehicles that were registered that year. In 2023, the share of BEVs in used car transfers rose slightly to 1.6%, and for new vehicles, BEVs were an 18.4% share.

Figure 1. New vehicle registrations and used vehicle sales (based on ownership transfers) in Germany in 2022 and 2023. Source: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt.

The number and share of used BEVs in vehicle ownership transfers rose through most of 2023. The highest recorded share of BEVs in the used vehicle market that year was 2.3% in September, when over 11,400 vehicles were transferred. The increasing number of used BEVs in the market is reflective of the higher number of BEVs that entered the stock starting in 2020, as the average holding period for leased cars is around 2 to 4 years for company cars and 6 years for privately owned cars. In 2020, BEVs were 0.3% of the nearly 48.8 million vehicles in the on-road stock in Germany and that share reached 2.1% in 2023.

As shown in Table 1, the growth of used BEVs from 2022 to 2023 (+40%) outpaced the overall markets for new and used cars, which both grew by 7% during that period. The only fuel types that had higher growth shares than used BEVs were used plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) and used hybrid vehicles, both of which saw higher year-to-year share increases with 45% and 44%, respectively. New hybrid vehicles also saw a higher growth rate of 43%. That new PHEVs shrunk by 52% from 2022 to 2023 was likely due to the phaseout of the PHEV purchase incentive at the end of 2022. Among internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the number of used gasoline car registrations grew by only 2% compared with new registrations at 13%. Used diesel cars grew by a larger margin of 10%.

Table 1. Used and new car registrations in Germany. Source: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt

  Used car registrations  New car registrations 
Powertrain type   2022  2023  Percent change 2022 versus 2023  2022  2023  Percent change 2022 versus 2023 
Battery electric  69,594  97,430  +40%  470,559  524,219  +11% 
Plug-in hybrid  66,631  96,873  +45%  362,093  175,724  -52% 
Hybrid  208,339  299,928  +44%  465,228  664,580  +43% 
Gasoline  3,552,720  3,624,010  +2%  863,445  978,660  +13% 
Diesel  1,690,572  1,860,702  +10%  472,274  486,581  +3% 
Total  5,641,516  6,030,874  +7%  2,651,357  2,844,609  +7% 

 

While the used BEV market is developing, especially when compared with the market for other powertrains, maintaining this growth trajectory is dependent on the continued acceleration of new BEV registrations. In absolute numbers, sales of new BEVs in Germany increased by 11% from 2022 to 2023, but their share of the overall market increased only slightly from 17.7% in 2022 to 18.4% in 2023. On top of that, the earlier-than-planned phaseout of the new BEV purchase incentive in Germany on December 18, 2023 could result in a drop in new BEV registrations in 2024. As income levels play an important role in the decision to buy either a new or used vehicle, a limited number of used BEVs may result in prices that limit the ability of groups with lower incomes to opt for an electric car.

In 2023, AutoScout24, the largest European online vehicle marketplace, reported that prices of used BEVs dropped substantially while prices of used gasoline and diesel vehicles stayed relatively constant (Figure 2). From January to November 2023, the index price, or the weighted average price over time, of used BEVs fell by 23%; for used gasoline and diesel cars, prices dropped by 6% and 2%, respectively, over the same time period. This is likely due to a growing supply of used BEVs for sale and a larger number of more affordable, non-premium BEVs being available for purchase.

Figure 2. Price index of used battery electric, diesel, and gasoline passenger cars in Germany from January to November 2023. Source: AutoScout24.
Several policy measures could help accelerate this progress and expand the used BEV market in Germany:

  • A BEV mandate for fleets would require that corporate fleets be made up of a specific percentage of new BEVs within a designated time frame. This would have broad climate benefits, as fleets in Germany made up roughly one-third of all new vehicle registrations in 2022. Beyond the environmental benefits, adding thousands of new BEVs to the on-road stock would be a boost to the secondhand market. The companies that purchase BEVs would also save money over time because of the lower total operating costs of BEVs when compared with gasoline and diesel ICEVs.
  • A bonus-malus system would levy fees on the purchase of ICEVs and use the funds to provide financial incentives to purchase BEVs. If designed to be revenue-neutral, the system could be self-sustaining and would not require funds from the government budget. A staggered bonus based on vehicle size, with larger bonuses for smaller vehicles, would also promote affordability because smaller cars are typically less expensive.
  • Interest-free loans for used BEV purchase for those with lower incomes can eliminate the additional financial burdens that come from traditional loans with higher interest rates. Some countries, such as Scotland and France, offer interest-free or low-interest loans for the purchase of used BEVs. A program such as this in Germany could be designed to benefit those with lower incomes by capping eligibility based on the applicants’ taxable gross income. It additionally could promote smaller, more affordable vehicle models by limiting loan eligibility based on vehicle size and price.

Continued development of the used BEV market will allow more Germans who are dependent on a car to participate in the transition from ICEVs to BEVs. Taking actions to accelerate the growth of this burgeoning market will also help bring the country closer to accomplishing its climate goals.

Authors

Kyle Morrison
Associate Researcher

Sandra Wappelhorst
Senior Researcher

Related Publications

THE ROLE OF THE USED CAR MARKET IN ACCELERATING EQUAL ACCESS TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES

The new EV market is gaining speed in the EU, but how can policies encourage growth in the used EV sales?

Europe

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Public EV charging in the United States is about to get a whole lot easier https://theicct.org/public-ev-charging-in-the-us-get-easier-feb24/ Mon, 12 Feb 2024 05:00:02 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36762 Highlights how the coming standardization of the North American Charging Standard (NACS), a universal plug shape, and new federal policies that promise improvements in charger functionality and ease of payment will make EV charging more accessible and reliable for drivers.

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Now that there are millions of electric vehicles (EVs) on U.S. roads, close attention is being paid to public charging reliability and accessibility, including plug compatibility, charger functionality, and the mechanics of payment. On all three fronts there’s good news for current and prospective EV drivers in the United States.

Thanks to a few big developments, in the coming years, nearly all EVs will be able to charge at nearly any public charger. Additionally, a federal program is slated to help ensure that chargers operate properly and that payment processing gets a lot easier by allowing users to use a single app to pay at any charger.

First let’s talk about compatibility and a newly formalized standard. Last spring, Ford made a major splash by announcing that starting in 2025, it will manufacturer its EVs using the North American Charging Standard (NACS) inlet derived from Tesla’s charging standard. After that, most major automakers (except Stellantis) and all the major charging infrastructure networks, including Electrify America, EVgo, Blink, and ChargePoint, made similar commitments to adopt the NACS inlet and connector in their North American vehicles and chargers, respectively. Then engineering standards-development organization SAE International said it would expedite the standardization process for NACS to make it an independent standard available for all. In December 2023, SAE released a Technical Information Report developing a standard for the “J3400” NACS connector.

Industry cohesion around the J3400 NACS charging standard, a universal plug shape, is significant because historically the U.S. market has had a variety of different connectors. This is in contrast with the two leading EV markets, China and Europe, where automakers have been mandated to use a harmonized charging standard for several years. In the United States, for Level 2 AC charging, Teslas use NACS and all other EV models have used a different plug called J1772. For DC fast charging, Teslas also use NACS, but most automakers have used a plug called the Combined Charging System (CCS) and some others have used a third plug type called CHAdeMO. This variety of charging connectors has meant that EV drivers seeking public charging need to check (1) if there are chargers along their route and (2) if those chargers are compatible with their vehicle. This won’t be the case for much longer.

The standardization of the J3400 NACS connector means that soon nearly all new EVs will be able to charge at nearly all charging stations. And for the millions of EVs already on U.S. roads, most non-Tesla EV drivers will soon gain access to Tesla’s NACS charging stations using an adapter. Uncertainty remains about how adapters will be rolled out to consumers, but automakers and charging providers will play a key role in helping consumers work through this and better understand their expanded charging options. For example, Ford recently announced that it will provide free charging adapters to its customers.

The industry shift to NACS comes with additional benefits. The NACS connector is more capable than the CCS connector because it allows higher amperages in both AC and DC operation, which translates to more potential power and less time spent at a charger. The NACS connector is also lighter and more ergonomic than other standards. Under a single standard, there won’t be any need to install charging stations with multiple connectors, and hardware costs will be less. In addition, NACS supports higher-voltage Level 2 charging that aligns with the voltage supply at many commercial locations. This means that chargers could be installed at locations that otherwise would require transformer upgrades, such as many mixed-use apartments and workplaces. Cheaper hardware and installation costs for charging projects could mean cheaper charging rates and even more savings for EV drivers.

Now let’s talk about helping to ensure that chargers function properly and that payment options are simple, accessible, and consistent across chargers in the United States. Communication errors between the EV and the charger and payment processing issues are common reasons why chargers malfunction. Standard communication protocols would go a long way toward improving reliability and optimizing payment. The communication protocols for the J3400 standard differ from Tesla’s legacy protocols and there is still work to be done by Tesla, other automakers, and charging manufacturers to ensure that all EVs and all chargers are interoperable. Fortunately, the federal National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, which is to provide funding for the installation of hundreds of thousands of chargers over the next several years, requires the implementation of the latest OCPP and OCPI standardized protocols for charger to network communication, as well as ISO 15118 for EV-to-charger communication. Together these standardized protocols will, among other things, reduce malfunctions by having all EVs and chargers speak the same “language”; expand error message reporting to allow for timely, precise, and lasting troubleshooting of faulty chargers; streamline payment processing and charger operation by allowing users to operate and pay for any charger from any company using a single app; and eventually allow for plug-and-charge capability for all chargers and EVs.

NEVI funding also comes with requirements that charging operators provide contactless payment options and guarantee that chargers are fully functional at least 97% of the time. On the latter, the federal government has already invested $150 million to repair and replace broken and faulty chargers across the United States. Because the NEVI program was developed prior to the J3400 NACS connector becoming a universal standard, the program does not require that NEVI-funded charging stations include the connector. However, since the industry has already largely agreed to adopt the standard, the federal government has expressed a willingness to update the program requirements and is likely to require the connector once SAE finalizes the standard by mid-2024.

As the NACS and NEVI roll out in tandem over the coming years, EV drivers in the United States will see both increased interoperability of charging stations and increased reliability. EV drivers and supporters have long sought to make EV charging away from home as simple and easy as filling up a gasoline car, and these developments are monumental steps toward making that a reality.

Author

Logan Pierce
Associate Researcher

Peter Slowik
U.S. Passenger Vehicles Lead

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Summarizes issues concerning the reliability of publicly accessible charging infrastructure, reviews actions in select jurisdictions, and provides a framework to address these issues.

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Taxing aviation for loss and damage caused by climate change https://theicct.org/taxing-aviation-for-loss-and-damage-caused-by-climate-change-feb24/ Thu, 08 Feb 2024 05:00:18 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36395 Levying taxes on airplane tickets could help provide a stable source of revenue for a new Loss and Damage Fund, which has been created to aid climate-vulnerable nations dealing with global warming effects.

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The world’s most climate-vulnerable countries scored a victory at COP28 when delegates agreed to implement a Loss and Damage Fund. The fund aims to collect money from wealthier countries and provide it to developing nations contending with the worst impacts of global warming.

But to have a real impact, the fund needs diverse and long-lasting revenue streams, in addition to pledges already made by some national governments. That’s why various taxes have been proposed over the years, including levies on aviation, maritime shipping, and financial transactions.

In light of the COP developments, we analyzed how much revenue a tax on airplane tickets could raise for the Loss and Damage Fund. Such a tax would provide a more stable and scalable funding source than voluntary, typically one-off financial assistance from wealthier countries.

Table 1 shows that $164 billion could be raised in a year if economy-class tickets were taxed at $30 each and premium-class tickets at $120 each. We selected $30 for economy seats based on the air passenger levy proposed by the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and the Environment. In a 2021 policy brief, the special rapporteur (an independent expert appointed by the United Nations) outlined a tax of $10 to $75 for economy and business tickets to help pay for climate-related losses, damages, and adaptation. We put the levy at $120 for premium-class seats because our research shows that premium seating is 2.6 to 4.3 times more carbon-intensive per person than economy seating. Exempting economy tickets to and from lower-income countries would help ensure that the tourism industry and nascent aviation market in those countries are not unduly burdened. Such an exemption would reduce the total tax revenue collected by $19 billion. Taxing just international flights still results in a sizeable chunk of revenue: $68 billion a year or, with the exemption, $58 billion a year.

Table 1. Example ticket tax revenues raised by flight type, seating class, and country income levels.

Type of flight  Country
income levela 
Million tickets sold, 2019  Estimated revenues from ticket tax 
(billions USD)
Economy class  Premium class  Total  Economy class, $30/ticketb  Premium class, $120/ticketb  Total 
Domestic  Higher income  2,422   104   2,526   $73   $12   $85  
Lower income  316c    322   $9c   $1   $10  
International  Higher income  1,462   113   1,575   $44   $14   $57  
Lower income  326c  11   337   $10c   $1   $11  
Total without exemption  4,525   233   4,759   $136   $28   $164 
Total with exemption  3,884   233   4,117   $117  $28   $145 

a Flights are attributed to “lower-income” countries if they depart from or arrive in a country that is classified as low income or lower middle income by the World Bank; the remaining flights are attributed to “higher-income” countries for the purpose of this analysis.

b These are example tax rates for modeling purposes, not ICCT policy proposals.

c Number of tickets and potential revenue exempted if economy-class tickets for flights to and from lower-income countries are not taxed.

There are already examples of such taxes. The French “solidarity tax on airplane tickets” charges €2.63-63.07 per ticket to finance efforts by the global health initiative Unitaid to combat infectious diseases in the Global South. The tax raised over €1 billion in its first decade. Though this tax is only one example, it suggests that aviation taxes can be used to raise significant funds for international causes.

Moreover, the ICCT’s previous research found that certain aviation tax policies can be a more equitable way to raise revenue from those most responsible for the sector’s emissions. A tax on frequent flyers would raise 90% of its revenue from the richest 10% of the global population.

There are, however, competing needs for the revenues from a potential aviation ticket tax. Decarbonizing international aviation will require up to $5 trillion in technology investments by 2050. We recently published an analysis showing that these investments—in order to have the greatest and quickest impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions—should be prioritized early in any taxation scenario and focused on emerging technologies.

Policymakers could, therefore, consider frontloading aviation tax revenues for mitigation in the near term and then gradually shift toward financial assistance related to loss and damage and to helping developing nations adapt to climate change. In addition, revenue from a domestic ticket tax could be earmarked for subsidizing sustainable aviation fuels within the country, while an international ticket tax can fund mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. Figure 1 illustrates how revenue could be apportioned over 30 years, using the same per-ticket taxes as outlined above.

Figure 1. Example allocation structure of aviation ticket tax revenue, assuming 50% of the revenue from international flights initially and an increasing share of all revenues (up to 80% domestic and 100% international) can potentially be used to help vulnerable countries with adaptation efforts and loss and damage.

Even if new aviation taxes went solely to the Loss and Damage Fund, the revenues will likely fall short of the need. Some studies project loss and damage needs of at least $400 billion each year. But even limited funding could have a huge impact for some countries. Small island developing states (SIDS) are typically extremely climate vulnerable but need less funding per disaster because of their small populations and geographic areas. Damage mitigation for the 2022 floods in Pakistan was estimated at $16.3 billion, 92 times higher than the $177 million requested by the island nation of Vanuatu for the entire country’s loss and damage that year.

In the best-case scenario, aviation can contribute to the funding mix for loss and damage, as long as such taxes are equitably designed with the goals of both decarbonizing the industry and helping those nations most injured by climate change.

Authors

Ethan Kellogg
Intern

Sola Zheng
Researcher

Related Publications

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The research advocates for a strategic approach, emphasizing that fiscal support should initially focus on research and development (R&D) and early capital expenditure (CapEx) for emerging clean aviation technologies before market subsidies aimed at narrowing cost gaps with fossil fuels.

Aviation
Global

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Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Zero-emission zones (October 2023) https://theicct.org/zev-phase-ins-zero-emission-zones-oct23/ Thu, 01 Feb 2024 15:47:19 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36708 Highlights cities with implemented and planned zero-emission zones (ZEZs) and near-ZEZs globally. Status: Through October 2023.

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ZEZ map thru 10.2023 v1

Highlights cities with implemented and planned zero-emission zones (ZEZs) and near-ZEZs globally. Status: Through October 2023.

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Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Medium- and heavy-duty buses (October 2023) https://theicct.org/zev-phase-ins-buses-oct23/ Thu, 01 Feb 2024 15:43:56 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36705 Highlights governments with official targets to 100% phase in sales of zero CO2 emission buses by a certain date. Status: Through October 2023.

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Bus phase-in map thru 10.2023 v1

Highlights governments with official targets to 100% phase in sales of zero CO2 emission buses by a certain date. Status: Through October 2023.

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Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Medium- and heavy-duty trucks (October 2023) https://theicct.org/zev-phase-ins-hdv-oct23/ Thu, 01 Feb 2024 15:41:20 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36701 Highlights governments with targets toward phasing in sales of new zero CO2 emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks by a certain date. Status: Through October 2023.

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Highlights governments with targets toward phasing in sales of new zero CO2 emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks by a certain date. Status: Through October 2023.

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Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Passenger cars and vans/light trucks (October 2023) https://theicct.org/zev-phase-ins-pv-vans-light-trucks-oct23/ Thu, 01 Feb 2024 15:39:55 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36697 Highlights governments with official targets to 100% phase in sales of new zero CO2 emission cars and vans/light trucks by a certain date. Status: Through October 2023.

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Highlights governments with official targets to 100% phase in sales of new zero CO2 emission cars and vans/light trucks by a certain date. Status: Through October 2023.

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“Front-of-the-meter” jobs for charging infrastructure should be front of mind in the EV transition https://theicct.org/front-of-the-meter-jobs-for-charging-infrastructure-should-be-front-of-mind-in-the-ev-transition-feb24/ Thu, 01 Feb 2024 04:01:50 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36601 Explores the job creation potential in the U.S. for building electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging infrastructure, highlighting the need for a large workforce in infrastructure, with an estimate of over 262,000 jobs driven mostly by “front-of-meter” infrastructure upgrades.

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Last week, we released a wide-ranging analysis estimating that more than 150,000 jobs could be needed in the United States to deploy “behind-the-meter” charging infrastructure for electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) through 2032. The term “behind the meter” refers to the customer’s side of the electricity meter and the term “front of the meter” is used when talking about the utility’s side, where there’s infrastructure such as substations, transformers, and feeder lines (Figure 1).

For HDVs specifically, the new study estimated that the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed HDV Phase 3 greenhouse gas (GHG) standard could generate as many as 16,000 jobs by 2032, or about 10% of the national total. But that’s only part of the jobs story.

As we’ll explore here, when all the jobs to construct the infrastructure to channel megawatt-scale power to chargers at private depots and public charging plazas for battery electric trucks and buses are considered, the utility-side infrastructure in front of the meter is likely to require a workforce an order of magnitude larger than the workforce building out customer-side infrastructure.

Figure 1. Battery-electric MHDV charging infrastructure ecosystem.

Let’s look at a preliminary, top-down jobs estimate based on available national-level data. It’s sensitive to assumptions about how individual chargers are configured into charging stations, how expensive utility grid upgrades are at each charging station, and how utility investments translate into jobs in the economy.

Still, we make generally conservative assumptions and the eventual number of jobs created could be larger. First, while the total number of chargers is based on a projected level of zero-emission vehicle adoption supported by the EPA HDV GHG Phase 3 proposal, in previous analysis we found that market forces, aided by Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, can support a larger number of zero-emission MHDVs and may draw even greater investments in charging infrastructure. Second, we do not fully account for possible infrastructure investments upstream from the distribution substation to support the largest multi-megawatt installations with peak loads greater than 10 MW.

We arrived at the job estimates in Figure 2 by first aggregating the nameplate capacity of 100 kW, 350 kW, and 1 MW chargers into a total number of hypothetical charging stations. The cost of grid upgrades and connection costs for charging stations were taken from previous ICCT research and utility upgrade cost estimates by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Next, we converted dollars invested in distribution grid capacity into a total number of direct and indirect jobs in the United States required and supported by these investments; this is based on an economic impact analysis of a utility’s substation transformer upgrade costs and other high-level utility infrastructure economic impact studies (here and here). Direct jobs are those related to the core construction and electrical work, for example installing substations and laying feeder lines; indirect jobs are upstream manufacturing, administrative, and other jobs not immediately involved in utility upgrade activities.

Under the most optimistic level of electrification likely to occur with the proposed EPA HDV Phase 3 GHG rule, we project more than 493,000 overnight 100 kW chargers, nearly 17,000 fast 350 kW chargers, and around 12,800 ultra-fast 1 MW chargers by 2032. We estimate up to $21 billion would need to be invested in distribution grid capacity to support these chargers, also by 2032.

These calculations, combined with the behind-the-meter jobs our colleagues estimated, suggest approximately 262,000 direct and indirect full-time equivalent jobs would be necessary to support the most optimistic rates of electrification to meet the EPA proposal by 2032 (Figure 2). More than 94% of these jobs come from what would be needed for utility-side infrastructure deployment. These front-of-the-meter jobs are wide-ranging and include substation construction, laying conduit, wiring, installing transformers and meters, laying feeder lines and their foundations, and manufacturing electrical grid components and assembly of these assets.

Figure 2. Estimated direct and indirect jobs created from infrastructure investments in MHDV electrification under the most optimistic rates of electrification to meet the EPA Phase 3 GHG proposal by 2032.

Billions of dollars in public investments are already funding charging infrastructure deployment at the federal and local levels. Private sector investments from companies such as TerraWatt Infrastructure, WattEV, Forum Mobility, and GreenLane reflect this growing industry.

Our estimates suggest the vast majority of charging infrastructure job creation will occur not in the manufacturing and installation of chargers themselves, but in the distribution grid assets that power the chargers. Finalizing the EPA Phase 3 proposal would generate significant momentum toward this job creation and the potential is even greater when accounting for the additional market potential shaped by IRA incentives. It’s key that utilities and regulators not only recognize the potential in constructing infrastructure assets in front of the meter, but that they begin planning to deliver front-of-the-meter assets and prepare their workforce in a time frame consistent with the EPA Phase 3 proposal and beyond.

Author

Yihao Xie
Researcher

Ray Minjares
Heavy-Duty Vehicles Program Director and San Francisco Managing Director

Related Publications

CHARGING UP AMERICA: THE GROWTH OF UNITED STATES ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE JOBS

This paper projects the number of jobs inside the U.S. that will be needed to expand electric LDV and MHDV charging infrastructure to meet annual charging needs of a growing electric vehicle fleet. This paper projects the number of jobs inside the U.S. that will be needed to expand electric LDV and MHDV charging infrastructure to meet annual charging needs based on U.S. EPA’s recent proposed regulations through 2032.

Charging infrastructure

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Highlights of the landscape of non-fiscal incentives for EVs in India https://theicct.org/highlights-of-the-landscape-of-non-fiscal-incentives-for-evs-india-feb24/ Wed, 31 Jan 2024 22:30:15 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=35965 Explores some of the non-fiscal incentives proposed by states and union territories in India to promote electric vehicles and the expected benefits of such policies.

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India’s road sector is responsible for 90% of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is a key measure to reduce these emissions. While fiscal incentives like tax credits and subsidies have been shown to aid in promoting EV adoption, non-fiscal incentives can also help lower barriers and encourage consumers to switch from conventional vehicles to EVs. Late last year, at an IEA training, I gave a talk about non-fiscal incentives in India and I’ll cover some of the highlights here.

First, our recent study shed light on the use and proposed use of non-fiscal incentives to promote EVs across Indian states and union territories up to September 2022. We compared this with fiscal incentives and, as illustrated in the chart below, found that most states have prioritized fiscal incentives over non-fiscal measures. Additionally, the only states that have proposed more than three non-fiscal incentives are Maharashtra and West Bengal—both have four non-fiscal incentives in their state EV policies. Between the two states, Maharashtra focuses more on policies that give EV drivers preferential status on the road than West Bengal.

Figure. Fiscal and non-fiscal incentives in the EV polices of states and union territories in India as of September 2022.

Maharashtra is worth dwelling on because it ranked second in India in terms of EV ownership (absolute number of vehicles across all segments) as of September 2023. The state’s efforts to deploy public charging stations were also evident in another recent ICCT study, which found Maharashtra topped all states and union territories in India in terms of public electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) stock. Maharashtra has proposed the following incentives: 

  1. Creation of green zones  
  2. Reserved parking for EVs  
  3. Incentives for efficient charging infrastructure rollouts like digital transactions for mobility cards to aid EV users 
  4. Allocation of public land for charging points 

Like Maharashtra, West Bengal has proposed creating green zones and incentivizing efficient charging roll-out strategies like mobility cards for EV users. It also suggests modifications in the building code for provisioning of EV charge stations in both private and commercial buildings; this would be incorporated as amendments for existing buildings and is also applicable to new buildings.  

By complementing fiscal initiatives with non-fiscal incentives, policymakers could expect a variety of benefits that are grouped into a few broad categories below. Non-fiscal incentives can help to: 

Enhance the likelihood of realizing the environmental benefits of EVs. When heavily polluting combustion engines are prevented from operating in a green zone, this bestows a privilege upon EV owners. Through such measures, governments and local authorities both reduce local pollution and create a sense of exclusivity and convenience for EV owners that can make the transition away from combustion vehicles more appealing. 

Support infrastructure development. Charging infrastructure is a critical component of widespread EV adoption. Governments can offer incentives to businesses and property owners to establish charging stations. Additionally, facilitating the installation of a charging network through strategies like issuing no-objection certificates in parking spaces, making public land available for charging, and organizing tenders can help stimulate the market for charging infrastructure. This ultimately benefits EV owners. 

Improve public awareness and understanding. Non-fiscal incentives can involve disseminating accurate information and promoting EV-related initiatives that help consumers make informed decisions and dispel uncertainties about the vehicles. Governments and civil society organizations can launch campaigns, workshops, and events to showcase the advantages of EVs, dispel myths, and address concerns about things like battery life during extreme weather, fire safety, range anxiety, and maintenance needs. For example, the Go Electric campaign was launched by the Ministry of Power and led by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency in February 2021; it created awareness of the consumer benefits of EVs at the national level and boosted the confidence of EV manufacturers and consumers alike.  

Foster collaboration and partnerships. This happens among stakeholders including automakers, utility companies, and local governments. By incentivizing EV partnerships, governments can encourage the development of innovative solutions such as vehicle-to-grid technology and smart charging systems. These collaborations can accelerate the growth of the EV market and provide consumers with enhanced features like advanced battery technology, improved safety, and services like wireless EV charging and seamless payment options. There is also the opportunity to share promising strategies for battery recycling and best practices for closing the loop of battery utilization. 

The states and union territories in India that have not yet focused on non-fiscal incentives in their EV policies have a good opportunity to look at the benefits described here. Fortunately for the climate and public health, there’s evidence that more are paying attention recently. Jharkhand notified an EV policy in October 2022 that provides lane and parking preferences to EVs. In November 2022, Manipur released a new electric mobility policy that includes reserved areas in tourism spots where the state is to provide transport services in an environmentally friendly manner by exclusively using EVs.  

Also, in a new EV policy that Tamil Nadu released in February 2023, the government is to declare six cities as EV cities. In each of these a small mobility program will be designed with a focus on EVs, and the program is to prepare a roadmap that includes the electrification of three-wheelers and buses in phases over 10 years.  

Similarly, Uttar Pradesh released EV manufacturing and mobility policy in November 2022. Green routes are to be identified in each district by 2025 and there are to be electric buses on each of these routes. Urban local bodies may identify spaces for reserved parking in public lots that contain EV charging.  

Non-fiscal measures such as the ones I discussed here can offer important benefits in the long run by supporting the EV transition. Policymakers in India and elsewhere would do well to consider steps to adopt them. 

Author


Sunitha Anup
Researcher
Related Publications
COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF NON-FISCAL INCENTIVES TO PROMOTE ELECTRIC VEHICLES ACROSS INDIAN STATES AND UNION TERRITORIES

Reviews the non-fiscal consumer incentives proposed and adopted in the electric vehicle policies of states and union territories in India.

Zero-emission vehicles
India

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