The EU introduced the first CO₂ standards in 2009. This legislation sets CO₂ emission reduction targets for manufacturers on new cars and vans. Figure 1 illustrates the historical average of emissions values and targets.

Figure 1. Historical average CO₂ emission values and targets of new passenger cars without flexible compliance mechanisms under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) test procedure and the subsequent Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). The 2021–2024 line corresponds to the WLTP-specific emissions reference target for 2021, calculated as the average of the WLTP-specific emissions reference targets of all manufacturers.

From 2000 to 2007, before the standards were in place, fleet CO₂ emissions declined by 1.9 g/km per year on average. From 2008, manufacturers outperformed the annual reduction rates required to meet the 2015 target of 130 g/km. However, without more stringent targets before 2020, the trend was reversed and average CO₂ emissions increased by 0.7 g/km per year over the next four years. Only in 2020 did the new target lead to a steep decline of 14 g/km compared to 2019. The decline continued over the next two years, but not at the same rate: the 6 g/km CO₂ reduction from 2021 to 2022 was less than half the reduction from 2020 to 2021.

As an update to 2021’s briefing, this paper details the manufacturer’s 2022 CO₂ emissions performance and presents the market share of fuel types and powertrain technologies by manufacturer and EU Member State. It also discusses flexible compliance mechanisms.

Of the 9.48 million new passenger cars represented in the 2022 preliminary EEA dataset, more than one million were electric vehicles. Manufacturers relied primarily on battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to meet their targets, with CO₂ emissions of combustion engine vehicles, mild hybrid vehicles, and full hybrid vehicles remaining, on average, at the same level.

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Most global EV sales, approximately 80%, were concentrated in those four largest markets. China remained the world’s largest EV market, with approximately 3 million EVs sold in 2023 H1, constituting 29% of all new LDVs sold in the country, marking a 5 percentage point increase from the previous year. Europe saw EVs accounting for 20% of new LDVs sold in 2023 H1, a slight decrease from 2022. The United States experienced an increase in EV market share, reaching 9% in 2023 H1, up from 7% in 2022. India’s EV market also grew, but it lagged behind the other major markets with a 2% market share in 2023 H1.

Figure 1. Light-duty EV market share, number of EV models for sale, and technology mix in the four regions, 2022 and 2023 H1.

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Figure 3b. Number of public charging stations per 1,000 EVs in Haryana’s 22 districts.

The analysis highlights the need for further development and equitable distribution of public EV charging infrastructure in Haryana to support the state’s ambitious EV adoption goals and contribute to India’s carbon neutrality objectives.

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This briefing, which updates previous reports on NEV policies through 2020, analyzes policy trends for new energy passenger cars and commercial vehicles in an evolving policy landscape where the central purchase subsidies come to an end at the end of 2022. Data was collected up to September 2023. Many city-level policies introduced during the pandemic have been extended into 2022 and 2023, including usage subsidies and preferential road access.

China is the leading electric vehicle market, with the 6.2 million NEVs sold in 2022 (an 82% increase from 2021) representing 59% of total global sales, China is actively exploring policy alternatives following the end of central purchase subsidies. Key challenges include varying NEV adoption rates across regions, expanding charging infrastructure on highways and in residential areas, and managing NEV battery recycling. The policy choices and trends discussed in this briefing provide valuable insights into China’s transition away from central purchase subsidies and its shift towards new incentives and strategies for promoting NEVs.

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These measures take the form of policies and regulations, fiscal instruments, and corporate strategies. Policies such as establishing emission standards and setting sales targets for new zero-emission equipment are implemented at the national and subnational levels. Fiscal measures include purchase incentives and investment in infrastructure, the latter of which can be made at the national level or by cities and/or equipment manufacturers.

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The analysis outlines three scenarios—Announced Ambitions , Partial Decarbonization , and Full Decarbonization)—to assess technological roadmaps for achieving zero well-to-wake (WTW) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions by 2050. While the Announced Ambitions scenario falls short, the more aggressive Partial and Full Decarbonization scenarios, relying on electrification and zero-emission fuels, offer potential solutions, with the Full Decarbonization scenario achieving zero emissions by 2050.

The case study acknowledges varying costs associated with these technological pathways and suggests that economic benefits and environmental advantages could outweigh these costs . The briefing emphasizes integrating decarbonization plans into development strategies, refining roadmaps based on cost-effectiveness, and early planning for achieving decarbonization goals. The analysis stresses the necessity for the Port of Yangpu to adopt electrification and zero-emission fuels to meet ambitious decarbonization goals by 2050 and caution against relying on fossil liquified natural gas as a bridging fuel solution given the issue of methane slip with marine engines.

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Based on the findings of this study, we propose the following recommendations:

• Referencing the RED II sustainability criteria alone, and in particular the GHG reduction criteria in Article 29, would not be enough to ensure unsustainable feedstocks are not used to meet a biomethane target in the EU. This is because silage maize, which is associated with significant ILUC emissions, qualifies towards the RED II sustainability criteria.
• Limiting a biomethane target to only those feedstocks in Annex IX in the RED II could ensure only low-GHG biomethane is incentivized in the EU. There is policy precedence for referencing only Annex IX feedstocks in the European Commission’s ReFuelEU aviation regulation. Were intermediate crops to be included in the Annex IX expansion, such a measure could allow biomethane produced from intermediate crops from most, if not all of Europe, to count towards a target, while ensuring maize grown in other regions as a cash crop would be ineligible.
• A target of less than 35 bcm would better align with the amount of biomethane that could feasibly be produced from Annex IX feedstocks in Europe. If subsidies of 1.79 euros were provided per cubic meter of biomethane produced, a target of 14 bcm could be achieved.

The post The climate risk of allowing feed crops in the EU gas package biomethane target appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

SAPs are voluntary planning and reporting tools that countries use to inform ICAO regarding aviation emissions reduction strategies and outline any environmental or economic impacts of those reductions. SAPs cover plans for aircraft purchases, new airports, fuels, and offsetting measures like the CORSIA initiative or carbon capture and storage to achieve the net-zero goal. SAPs have been a primary tool for countries to report to the ICAO on their current aviation-related emissions and aviation industry prospective developments. 

Caption: Survey of SAPs. 

Countries have submitted SAPs to the ICAO since 2013, but the new international agreement raises the stakes for action by member countries. Indeed, as countries begin to prepare new SAPs to support the LTAG agreement, member countries could benefit from clearer guidance from the ICAO on what information they should include in their SAPs. However, providing clearer guidance will be challenging; because the agreement does not assign emission reduction goals to individual countries or their carriers or set interim targets to demonstrate progress by 2030, for example. 

This briefing clarifies how SAPs can be improved to help achieve CO2 emission reduction goals. Specifically, we identify information that is missing in current SAPs and highlight areas that could be clarified to help determine if SAPs present viable net-zero pathways. 

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这些措施包括政策法规、财政工具和企业战略的形式。 政策在国家和地方各级实施，包括设定新零排放设备排放标准的销售目标等。 财政措施包括购买激励和基础设施投资； 而相关基础设施投资可以由国家层面、城市或设备制造商提供。

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The three mechanisms in discussion include:

1. A carbon correction factor (CCF), which would credit the certified emissions of a vehicle based on the share of alternative fuels in Europe’s road transport.
2. A fuels crediting system, whereby manufacturers would pay fuel suppliers to blend additional quantities of alternative fuels and receive a credit in return which they can apply towards vehicle emissions.
3. A type-approval process whereby a vehicle running on pure alternative fuels would certified as emitting less CO₂ than a conventional vehicle operating on fossil fuels.

Figure 1. Alternative fuels crediting mechanisms.

The analysis presents the following findings:

1. The proposed mechanism would artificially reduce the effectiveness of the standards, potentially resulting in up to 200 million tons less CO₂ savings from 2020 to 2050. This is because a CCF would credit the achievements of other EU policies towards the CO₂ standards, since alternative fuels are already incentivized by the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). This would have the equivalent effect to reducing each CO₂ target in 2030, 2035, and 2040 by 8%.
2. A fuels crediting or a type approval system for alternative fuels pose a climate risk, possibly creating inconsistency with existing fuels policies. Either system could potentially allow biofuels with high greenhouse gas emissions or that are fraud-prone to count towards the standards beyond their limits in other European Union (EU) fuels policies like the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III).

Figure 4. Tailpipe CO₂ emissions (million tonnes) in the EU under the European Commission’s proposed revision of HDV CO₂ standards with and without a CCF.

A summary of the paper is available here.

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