Figure 1 shows that the official WLTP type-approval CO₂ emission values are more representative of real-world values than the ones from the previous NEDC test procedure. Our analysis shows a divergence of 7.7% for WLTP in 2018 compared to 32.7% for NEDC. However, the gap between real-world and official CO₂ emissions increased by over 80% in the 5 years since the introduction of the WLTP, reaching 14.1% in 2022.

Figure 1. Divergence between real-world and type-approval CO₂ emission values for internal combustion engine and hybrid passenger cars registered in Germany. Data sources: European Environmental Agency (EEA) and spritmonitor.de

This growing gap diminishes the effectiveness of the European Union’s CO₂ standards in reducing tailpipe CO₂ emissions from cars and vans. This is because CO₂ reduction goals are implemented by setting lower targets for official CO₂ emissions. The growing gap between official and real-world emission values, however, leads to a lower reduction in real-world CO₂ emissions than intended by the regulators.

Figure 2 compares the reduction in official versus real-world CO₂ emissions between 2009 and 2022. While official CO2 emission values decreased by 19.5%,real-world emissions decreased by only 5.8% over the same period due to the growing gap.

Figure 2. Reduction of internal combustion engine and hybrid car type-approval and real-world CO₂ emissions since the adoption of CO₂ standards in the EU in 2009 and 2022. WLTP CO₂ emissions in 2022 were converted to NEDC-equivalent values using a conversion factor of 1.21.

The analysis is based on official CO₂ emission data reported by the European Environment Agency (EEA) combined with real-world fuel-consumption information from more than 160,000 combustion engine and conventional hybrid cars reported by consumers on the spritmonitor.de platform.

The European Commission has been tasked through the CO₂ standards regulation with developing a mechanism or process that prevents this gap from growing. For this purpose, real-world fuel consumption data recorded by on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring (OBFCM) devices should be used. However, while the availability of OBFCM data will allow the implementation of such a mechanism by 2027, regulators foresee this measure starting in 2030.

Based on the analysis, the authors offer the following recommendations to prevent the gap from growing and mitigate excess CO₂ emissions caused by a growing gap, using reliable and transparent data:

• The European Commission could develop a mechanism that prevents further growth of the gap, and a proposal for such a mechanism is provided in this paper. The described mechanism intends to both mitigate the growing gap and compensate for the excess real-world CO2 emissions released prior to the introduction of a correction mechanism.
• The availability of OBFCM real-world consumption data would support applying the correction mechanism starting in 2027.
• Real-world fuel consumption estimates could be displayed on vehicle efficiency labels for consumers.
• Anonymized OBFCM data could be made publicly available.
• OBFCM could be made mandatory for electric vehicles to ensure the availability of real-world energy consumption data.

Read more in our press release in German and English.

The post  On the way to ‘real-world’ CO2 values? The European passenger car market after 5 years of WLTP appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The analysis identifies four key Jones Act corridors—the Pacific Northwest, West Coast, Pacific, and the Great Lakes—and presents opportunities for zero-emission vessel projects and collaboration with local hydrogen producers. Our key findings highlight that these four vessels could complete 99% of their routes using liquid hydrogen. Rotor sails are variable in performance based on route, heading, speed, and season, while wing sails consistently generate net positive energy. Wind-assisted propulsion offers significant annual fuel cost savings, particularly on Pacific routes and the Great Lakes.

ID 36 – Jones Act, white paper, letter, 60036 v8

Figure ES.1. A summary of four proposed corridors’ liquid hydrogen demands and annual fuel savings provided by wind-assist technologies

The post Jones Act shipping case studies: Feasibility of U.S. domestic green corridors with hydrogen and wind assist appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Figure ES1. Estimated 2030 SAF production across four deployment scenarios

The paper underscores the importance of policy support, technology readiness, and feedstock sustainability in the success of the SAF Grand Challenge. It notes that the current system of fluctuating SAF tax credits, set to expire by 2027, creates uncertainty in the industry, discouraging investment in the types of advanced fuel pathways that require long-term policy certainty. Moreover, the potential exists for these tax credits to inadvertently support SAF pathways with high sustainability risks, such as purpose-grown biomass that competes with food and feed markets. Implementing policy safeguards would ensure that financial support is directed toward sustainable feedstocks and conversion technologies.

The analysis presents four illustrative scenarios that reflect a combination of policy incentives, technology delays, and feedstock eligibility requirements, shedding light on the dynamics of SAF production over time. This analysis that technology and facility deployment delays are likely to restrict near-term increases in SAF production, while meeting the 2050 targets will necessitate going beyond the sustainable availability of existing biomass, such as through the production of synthetic or “e-fuels”. The findings highlight the varying cost competitiveness of different SAF production pathways and the influence of policy incentives. While the United States has significant resource potential to produce SAF, achieving the SAF Grand Challenge targets will depend on sustained policy support, technological advancements, and a strong focus on advanced feedstocks and conversion technologies to ensure the long-term viability and cost-competitiveness of SAF.

The post Meeting the SAF Grand Challenge: Current and future measures to increase U.S. sustainable aviation fuel production capacity appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

This study seeks to clarify the implications of cost barriers for decarbonizing the private passenger car fleet in Germany. We analyze the total cost of ownership for selected vehicle models over a four-year holding period in the compact and mini segments. In the compact segment, we compare the battery electric Volkswagen (VW) ID.3 Pro and the gasoline VW Golf VIII Style 2. In the smallest category, the mini segment, the compared models are the battery electric Dacia Spring Extreme Electric 65 and the gasoline Toyota Aygo X 1.0. The report then compares these costs as a share of net household income in Germany for different income groups. It further discusses ways to enhance access to BEVs in Germany more broadly. 

Some of the high-level findings include:  

• Battery electric cars in the compact segment already prove more cost-effective than comparable gasoline models, boasting a cost advantage of €12,300 with purchase incentives and €5,100 without.
• In the mini-car segment, purchase incentives become the decisive factor in making battery electric cars the more economical choice compared to gasoline cars.
• Leasing costs over a four-year period for the selected BEV models are cheaper in the compact segment, but not in the mini car segment without incentives.
• Given a diverse range of charging scenarios, all BEV models were found to be cheaper to charge than fueling the comparable ICE gasoline models.
• The vehicle ownership tax and the greenhouse gas (GHG) quota both have a marginal effect on total vehicle costs.
• Income-based incentives can help households with lower incomes to participate in the transition to electric vehicles and accelerate the adoption of battery electric vehicles in the market.

Four-year total cost of ownership for selected vehicle models in the compact (C) and mini car (A) segments in Germany from 2023 to 2026, assuming 100% alternating current home charging. Costs are shown with and without the 2023 one-time purchase incentive and four-year application of the GHG quota.

These results underscore that costs remain a major barrier to BEV uptake and are, for many in Germany, a significantly higher portion of their net income than what these groups would, on average, pay for transportation. Understanding the costs of new BEV ownership in comparison to gasoline models can help the German government make informed decisions on transportation policy going forward.

The post Are battery electric vehicles cost competitive? An income-based analysis of the costs of new vehicle purchase and leasing for the German market appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The 2022 study identified a total cumulative mitigation potential of 100 Gt CO2 between the Baseline and Ambitious scenario in the 2020–2050 time frame, of which announced targets were projected to avoid about 20 Gt CO2; this resulted in an “ambition gap” of 80 Gt CO2. This updated modeling shows that recently adopted policies will avoid about 17 Gt CO2 and following through on proposals and announced EV targets would avoid an additional 25 Gt CO2. Combined, recently adopted policies and announced proposals and EV targets have shrunk the ambition gap to 53 Gt CO2. However, even if a ZEV transition were achieved in line with our Ambitious scenario, a further 62 Gt CO2 would still need to be avoided by 2050 to align with the best chances of limiting warming to 1.7°C. For 1.5°C, an additional 123 Gt CO2 would need to be avoided compared to our Ambitious scenario.

There is additional mitigation potential in a variety of other measures, including avoid-and-shift policies for passenger and freight travel, improving conventional vehicle fuel efficiency beyond current policy targets, accelerating the removal of older vehicles from the fleet, and adjusting used vehicle import policies to accelerate ZEV uptake. The ICCT is partnering with the International Energy Agency, the International Transport Forum, the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, and the United Nations Environment Programme to research additional mitigation strategies that will build on this study.

The post Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2023 appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Entre los desafíos principales, la informalidad del sector es un factor determinante para la dependencia en combustibles fósiles y tecnologías contaminantes, especialmente de vehículos pesados propulsados por diésel. Estos vehículos son la fuente principal de emisiones que afectan directamente la salud de las personas, y representan el 38% del consumo total de combustibles en América Latina. 

Para asegurar un proceso sostenible y progresivo hacia la descarbonización de las flotas de carga, es necesario fomentar el desarrollo económico de los países al mismo tiempo que se reducen los impactos adversos del transporte de mercancías. Para ello, es necesario trazar una hoja de ruta con cinco políticas principales: metas de ventas de vehículos nuevos cero emisiones, regulaciones ambientales y operacionales, incentivos fiscales, infraestructura de recarga y promoción de la demanda. 

Este estudio analiza las barreras que el sector enfrenta y las oportunidades que la región ofrece para superarlas, detallando una hoja de ruta recomendada para la descarbonización del transporte de carga terrestre en toda América Latina. 

Esta publicación fue revisada el 28 de agosto de 2023 para reflejar que es un Libro Blanco y eliminar una tabla duplicada.

The post Hoja de ruta para descarbonizar el transporte de carga en América Latina entre 2025 y 2050 appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

This study uses flights of 400 km and 700 km – about the distance from New York City to Washington, D.C. – to simulate the real-world use of ATR 72s. On such flights, one fuel cell aircraft would have lower energy and carbon intensities, be marginally more expensive to fuel, and could reduce GHG emissions by 2,500 tonnes per year.

This study also includes a fuels analysis to quantify the carbon intensity and cost of fueling a retrofit aircraft with GH2 and LH2 compared to regular jet fuel (Jet A) and e-kerosene. A fuel cell aircraft, fueled by green liquid hydrogen, can reduce carbon intensity by 88% compared to Jet A and by 35% compared to e-kerosene. While green hydrogen will likely be more expensive than jet fuel in most cases, the increased efficiency of the fuel cell propulsion system would bring the price premium down to 29–40% in the United States in 2030 and would make fueling with green hydrogen cheaper than fossil jet fuel in the United States in 2050. In the European Union, where hydrogen is expected to be more expensive to produce, the price premium for using green hydrogen would be around 100% in 2030, dropping to 50% in 2050.

Figure. Carbon intensity of different fueling options.

Six key findings emerge from this study:

• Retrofitting an ATR 72 with hydrogen fuel cell propulsion would result in a more energy efficient aircraft.
• Using green hydrogen to power a retrofit fuel cell aircraft would result in nearly a 90% reduction in GHG emissions.
• The increased efficiency of a fuel cell propulsion system would narrow the price premium of using green hydrogen.
• Fueling with LH2 would increase the range of a fuel cell aircraft.
• Fuel cell retrofit aircraft could have the payload and range capability to service 15%–20% of the turboprop market.
• Increasing the efficiency of a fuel cell would be the most effective way to improve aircraft performance.

In summary, this study finds that a fossil-fueled turboprop aircraft retrofitted with hydrogen storage and fuel cell propulsion is more energy efficient and less carbon intensive, but more expensive to fuel. It would have lower payload and range capabilities but would reduce GHG emissions by 88% relative to the original aircraft.

Figure. Illustrative tank layout of a retrofitted ATR 72 for 50 passengers.

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The figure below shows the potential fleet-average CO₂ emission standards for passenger cars using various CO₂-reducing technology and BEV sales percentages. There are no super credits assigned to BEVs; the sales of BEVs are absolute numbers. As illustrated, 30% BEV penetration is possible at a fleet-average target of 90 gCO₂/ km. This implies manufacturers could meet this standard solely by adopting 30% BEVs in their fleets and zero ICEV improvement on the other end.

Figure. Possible passenger car fleet-average CO₂ emission standards for India, in gCO₂/km, that could be achieved through improved ICEV technologies and/or BEVs with no super credits.

Although super credits are helpful in incentivizing BEVs, their use inflates the actual number of BEVs sold, and manufacturers do not need to reduce the ICEV CO₂ emissions as much as they would have to without super credits. This is because the super credits allow them to meet fleet-average CO₂ targets with a relatively small number of BEVs. Given that the real-world CO₂ emissions of ICEVs are about 1.4 times higher than New European Driving Cycle type-approval values, the fleet-average real-world CO₂ emissions of India’s fleet would be expected to be significantly higher than the standard suggests with the use of super credits. An effective way to prevent this would be to launch phase 3 targets earlier, in 2027, and then gradually reduce the super credits by 1 until they are phased out in 2030.

The post Costs and CO2 emissions reduction benefits of potential phase 3 fuel consumption standards for India’s passenger vehicles appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The authors analyzed the baseline fuel consumption, technology potential, cost, and cost-effectiveness of technology packages for five different vehicle segments, four rigid trucks and one tractor-trailer. Results suggest that improvements in internal combustion engine (ICE) technology result in fuel consumption reductions of up to 43% for rigid trucks and 49% for tractor-trailers in 2030 over model year 2022 vehicles. Hybrid technology reduced fuel consumption by 4% for the rigid trucks and 2% for the tractor-trailer, largely because they mostly operated on highways and not in stop-and-go traffic. In terms of energy consumption, electrification provided a 77% reduction for both rigid trucks and tractor-trailers.

Based on the technology potential, the authors also modeled carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from HDTs and oil demand under different policy scenarios (see figure). Without further policy intervention, India is projected to more than quadruple HDT emissions by 2070. However, with the combined benefits of the ICE technology packages and increased market penetration for battery-electric trucks, India can avoid up to 85% of annual CO₂ emissions and 22% of economy-wide oil demand in 2050; up to 75% of cumulative emissions between 2022 and 2070 can be avoided under the High Ambition policy scenario. Importantly, India also has the potential to use cost-effective technology to reverse the emissions trend of HDTs as early as 2032.

Figure. Annual CO₂ emissions from HDTs under the three scenarios.

The post Heavy-duty trucks in India: Technology potential and cost-effectiveness of fuel-efficiency technologies in the 2025–2030 time frame appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The analysis finds that cost-viable volumes of RNG could displace, at most, 8.9% of heavy-duty fuel demand in California in 2030. For RNG that is injected into the natural gas pipeline network, cost-viable volumes could displace 5.2% of statewide gas demand. In addition, slightly less than half of California’s maximum RNG resource potential can be achieved in 2030 with the current set of incentives. Changing credit calculations in the LCFS to account for the state’s methane reduction policies would reduce the potential of cost-viable RNG produced outside California but would not significantly affect the economics of in-state RNG production.

The analysis also finds that a natural gas tractor-trailer will generate, at most, approximately 11% lifetime GHG savings relative to a diesel tractor-trailer, even when assuming California achieves its maximum in-state RNG potential. In contrast, a battery-electric tractor-trailer generates approximately 57% GHG savings over its lifetime compared to a diesel tractor-trailer, based on the projected change in California’s electricity grid intensity over time.

Supplemental material
Case studies: The project economics of producing renewable natural gas or electricity and the impact of policy incentives

The post 2030 California renewable natural gas outlook: Resource assessment, market opportunities, and environmental performance appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.