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In Colombia, thanks to public policies, there are requirements for a minimum purchase of 30% of electric vehicles in the public transport fleet by 2025. According to the requirements imposed by the national government for large cities, a minimum purchase of electric buses is required, starting in 2025 with 10% and progressively increasing to reach 100 % in 2035.

Specifically in Bogotá, the local government has gone further and has established that it will not allow new internal combustion buses as of 2022. To achieve this, the business models, vehicle typologies and recharging infrastructure necessary for the use of zero-emission buses will have to be in place.

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This report details the elements of the Technology Ascent Plan (PAT), a document that presents specific goals to improve air quality and reduce public health impacts in Bogotá, Colombia, through operational monitoring and follow-up mechanisms coordinated by three different institutions: the Secretariat of Mobility, the District Secretariat of Environment, and TransMilenio. The authors explore its main components and analyze the development of guidelines for the implementation of zero or low emission vehicles, the creation of a database with information in the public domain, and the definition of clean mobility strategies in an evaluation and control program. This is an important document to guide the decarbonization of the city’s fleet, with measures and strategies that can serve as a model for other cities in the country and in Latin America to adopt.

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Sen and Miller (2023) demonstrated that a scenario of Ambitious ZEV Sales encompassing a full phaseout of sales of new non-ZEV vehicles globally by 2045 can ensure that the road transport emissions trajectory is compatible with a 67% likelihood of achievement of a below-2°C pathway without overshoot. This study shows that a combination of additional strategies in the “All Out” scenario could further reduce emissions in line with a well-below 2°C pathway with the same parameters. This is similar to what a previous ICCT study, Graver et al., (2022, found is achievable for the aviation sector, but is still far from a pathway that aligns with 1.5°C. The sizeable work that remains is underscored by another finding of this study, that projected CO2 emissions from vehicles that are already on the road today would exceed the limited carbon budget remaining to avoid overshoot of 1.5°C. Indeed, the cumulative emissions from selling no new vehicles going forward are only 10 billion tonnes lower than the All Out scenario when no other measures are implemented.

Ending all car sales tomorrow is not a feasible option, but the strategies identified in this paper are, and are nearly as effective. In particular, Ambitious ZEV Sales for new vehicles combined with restricting the age of used vehicle sales to no more than 5 years for light-duty vehicles and no more than 8 years for heavy-duty vehicles (both with a three-year dispensation for Africa) could avoid an additional 61 billion tonnes of cumulative CO2 emissions globally; this contributes 42% of the emission reductions in the All Out scenario, more than any other two strategies combined. But it also highlights the scale of the challenge in reducing emissions from new and used vehicles in time to avoid overshoot of 1.5°C. While some additional strategies could be considered in future studies, carbon removal technologies may also need to play a role if in-sector efforts are not able to bridge this gap.

Additional Materials:
Expanded Methodology: Data and methods of analysis used in developing strategies to align global road transport with well below 2°c

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The study finds that legal frameworks at the national level can allow cities to establish enforceable low- and zero-emission zones. However, even without a national framework, cities can establish such zones by using local and regional laws and voluntary pilot projects.

Careful design and implementation of these zones can improve equity. Exemptions and financial incentives targeting impacted communities and small businesses could enable an equitable transition. Pilot projects with an equity focus can raise public awareness and support before fully implementing a low- or zero-emission zone.

Public communication and consultation are critical in every stage of planning and implementation of low- and zero-emission zones. To ensure public support and address concerns, cities have worked with experts, local organizations, and businesses to raise awareness about their benefits. Measuring and publishing data on pollution from internal combustion engine vehicles can illustrate the potential health benefits of zero-emission zones.

*This paper was updated on 17 November 2023 to clarify details related to plans and goals for Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

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