Figure ES1. Estimated 2030 SAF production across four deployment scenarios

The paper underscores the importance of policy support, technology readiness, and feedstock sustainability in the success of the SAF Grand Challenge. It notes that the current system of fluctuating SAF tax credits, set to expire by 2027, creates uncertainty in the industry, discouraging investment in the types of advanced fuel pathways that require long-term policy certainty. Moreover, the potential exists for these tax credits to inadvertently support SAF pathways with high sustainability risks, such as purpose-grown biomass that competes with food and feed markets. Implementing policy safeguards would ensure that financial support is directed toward sustainable feedstocks and conversion technologies.

The analysis presents four illustrative scenarios that reflect a combination of policy incentives, technology delays, and feedstock eligibility requirements, shedding light on the dynamics of SAF production over time. This analysis that technology and facility deployment delays are likely to restrict near-term increases in SAF production, while meeting the 2050 targets will necessitate going beyond the sustainable availability of existing biomass, such as through the production of synthetic or “e-fuels”. The findings highlight the varying cost competitiveness of different SAF production pathways and the influence of policy incentives. While the United States has significant resource potential to produce SAF, achieving the SAF Grand Challenge targets will depend on sustained policy support, technological advancements, and a strong focus on advanced feedstocks and conversion technologies to ensure the long-term viability and cost-competitiveness of SAF.

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O setor de transporte no Brasil se destaca devido ao seu forte foco em biocombustíveis, com a maioria dos carros de passageiros sendo veículos flex (92% das vendas em 2020), operando com uma proporção significativa de etanol à base de cana-de-açúcar na mistura média de combustível. Ainda assim, depois da agricultura e da mudança no uso da terra, o setor de transporte é a terceira maior fonte de emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) no país. Alcançar a meta do Brasil de zerar as emissões de GEE líquidas até 2050 dependerá, portanto, de uma redução rápida das emissões de GEE nesse setor.

Este estudo avalia quais tipos de motores a combustão ou elétricos permitem a maior redução das emissões de GEE de carros de passageiros. A avaliação do ciclo de vida (ACV) inclui as emissões da fabricação de veículos e baterias, bem como a queima de combustível, a produção de combustível e eletricidade e a manutenção. O estudo compara veículos com motor de combustão interna flex (ICEVs) e veículos elétricos a bateria (BEVs) usando veículos novos médios nas categorias compacta, média e SUV compacto. Quando possível, as emissões de veículos elétricos híbridos (HEVs), veículos elétricos híbridos plug-in (PHEVs) e veículos elétricos a célula de combustível a hidrogênio (FCEVs) também são avaliadas.

O estudo constata que as emissões do ciclo de vida dos ICEVs flex variam amplamente quando operados com gasolina C, etanol ou uma mistura dos dois combustíveis. Isso implica que, para uma avaliação representativa de suas emissões, as proporções médias de gasolina C e etanol no mercado precisam ser consideradas. Com a matriz elétrica brasileira, os BEVs atuais emitem cerca de um terço das emissões do ciclo de vida dos ICEVs flex e os modelos futuros podem se aproximar de emissões zero. Os FCEVs a hidrogênio mostram uma redução semelhante nas emissões de GEE, mas somente quando operados com hidrogênio verde baseado em eletricidade renovável. Híbridos e híbridos plug-in, ao contrário, mostram apenas uma redução limitada nas emissões de GEE e não alcançam emissões zero a longo prazo. Essas descobertas refletem as mesmas tendências observadas em análises anteriores do ICCT de veículos na China, Europa, Índia e Estados Unidos.

Com base nessas descobertas, este estudo também apresenta uma série de recomendações de políticas para descarbonizar o setor de transporte. Em particular, metas ambiciosas nos padrões de emissões de CO2 do próximo Programa Mobilidade Verde e Inovação – PROMOVI (anteriormente Rota 2030) poderiam estabelecer as bases para aumentar continuamente a produção de veículos elétricos no Brasil. Isso ajudaria a alinhar o setor de transporte com as metas climáticas do governo. Além disso, incluir as emissões de mudança no uso da terra no programa de biocombustíveis RenovaBio ajudaria a melhorar a sustentabilidade do etanol.

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The transportation sector in Brazil stands out due to its strong focus on biofuels, with most passenger cars being gasoline-ethanol flex-fuel vehicles (92% of sales in 2020) operating on a high share of sugarcane-based ethanol in the average fuel mix. Still, after agriculture and land use change, the transport sector is the third largest source of GHG emissions in the country. Reaching Brazil’s target of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 will thus depend on a swift reduction of GHG emissions in this sector.

This study evaluates which combustion engine and electric power train types allow the largest reduction of GHG emissions from passenger cars. The life-cycle assessment (LCA) includes the emissions of vehicle and battery manufacturing, as well as fuel combustion, fuel and electricity production, and maintenance. The study compares flex-fuel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) using average new vehicles across the compact, medium, and compact SUV segments. Where possible, the emissions of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are also assessed.

The study finds that the life-cycle emissions of flex-fuel ICEVs vary largely when operated on gasoline C, on ethanol, or on a mix of the two fuels. This implies that for a representative assessment of their emissions, the market average shares of gasoline C and ethanol need to be considered. With the corresponding average electricity mix, current BEVs emit about one third of the life-cycle emissions of gasoline-ethanol flex-fuel ICEVs and future models can approach zero emissions. Hydrogen FCEVs show a similar reduction in GHG emissions, but only when operated on renewable electricity-based (green) hydrogen. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids, in contrast, only show a limited reduction in GHG emissions and do not reach zero emissions in the long term. These findings reflect the same trends observed in previous ICCT analyses of vehicles in China, Europe, India, and the United States.

Based on these findings, this study also presents a series of policy recommendations for decarbonizing the transport sector. In particular, ambitious targets in the CO₂ emission standards of the upcoming Green Mobility and Innovation Program – PROMOVI (formerly Rota 2030), could lay the groundwork for continuously increasing electric vehicle production in Brazil. This would help to align the transport sector with the government’s climate targets. Further, including land use change emissions in the RenovaBio biofuels program would help to improve the sustainability of ethanol.

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The three mechanisms in discussion include:

1. A carbon correction factor (CCF), which would credit the certified emissions of a vehicle based on the share of alternative fuels in Europe’s road transport.
2. A fuels crediting system, whereby manufacturers would pay fuel suppliers to blend additional quantities of alternative fuels and receive a credit in return which they can apply towards vehicle emissions.
3. A type-approval process whereby a vehicle running on pure alternative fuels would certified as emitting less CO₂ than a conventional vehicle operating on fossil fuels.

Figure 1. Alternative fuels crediting mechanisms.

The analysis presents the following findings:

1. The proposed mechanism would artificially reduce the effectiveness of the standards, potentially resulting in up to 200 million tons less CO₂ savings from 2020 to 2050. This is because a CCF would credit the achievements of other EU policies towards the CO₂ standards, since alternative fuels are already incentivized by the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). This would have the equivalent effect to reducing each CO₂ target in 2030, 2035, and 2040 by 8%.
2. A fuels crediting or a type approval system for alternative fuels pose a climate risk, possibly creating inconsistency with existing fuels policies. Either system could potentially allow biofuels with high greenhouse gas emissions or that are fraud-prone to count towards the standards beyond their limits in other European Union (EU) fuels policies like the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III).

Figure 4. Tailpipe CO₂ emissions (million tonnes) in the EU under the European Commission’s proposed revision of HDV CO₂ standards with and without a CCF.

A summary of the paper is available here.

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