Vehicle testing - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/technology/vehicle-testing/ Independent research to benefit public health and mitigate climate change Fri, 09 Feb 2024 11:32:05 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/favicon-150x150.png Vehicle testing - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/technology/vehicle-testing/ 32 32 The gap between real-world and official values for CO2 emissions and fuel consumption grows again despite new test procedure  https://theicct.org/pr-en-gap-between-real-world-and-official-values-for-co2-emissions-and-fuel-consumption-grows-again-despite-new-test-procedure-jan24/ Wed, 31 Jan 2024 04:10:19 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36295 A new ICCT study indicates that the gap between real-world and official CO2 emission and fuel consumption values of new combustion engine cars increased between 2018 and 2022 from 8% to 14%. Berlin, 31 January – The average gap, or divergence, between the official and real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emission values of passenger cars […]

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A new ICCT study indicates that the gap between real-world and official CO2 emission and fuel consumption values of new combustion engine cars increased between 2018 and 2022 from 8% to 14%.

Berlin, 31 January – The average gap, or divergence, between the official and real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emission values of passenger cars in Europe has grown again despite the introduction of a new vehicle test procedure. The gap reached a level of 14% in 2022, i.e. real-world emission levels were 14% higher than advertised by manufacturers. The gap has grown 80% in five years, going up from a level of 8% in 2018. If not addressed, this trend will compromise the effectiveness of the EU’s CO2 reduction targets. It will also lead to false consumer expectations about real-world fuel consumption as well as the associated costs and environmental impact.

The results are based on an investigation by the nonprofit research organization International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). The study analyzes official CO2 emission data, a proxy for fuel consumption, reported by the European Environment Agency (EEA), combined with real-world fuel consumption information from more than 160,000 combustion engine and conventional hybrid cars reported by consumers on the spritmonitor.de website. (Plug-in hybrid cars were analyzed separately in a previous report.)

Official CO2 emission values are determined through measurements in a controlled laboratory environment. In 2017, a new test procedure, the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), replaced the former New European Drive Cycle (NEDC). While the new WLTP values are more representative of real-world values than their predecessor—and consequently lowered the gap from 33% in 2018 to 8% in the same year—, the gap is now growing again. While official fuel consumption and CO2 emission values dropped by about 7.3% between 2018 and 2022, the reduction achieved on the road was less than one-third, with only 2.3%.

Gap or divergence between real-world and type-approval CO2 emission values of NEDC and WLTP type-approved internal combustion engine and hybrid passenger cars registered in Germany. Data sources: European Environmental Agency (EEA) and spritmonitor.de

Jan Dornoff, Research Lead at the ICCT and co-author of the report, emphasizes, “Our analysis shows that the real-world gap is growing again, after the introduction of WLTP. Without counteraction, official CO2 emission values will become increasingly unrepresentative of real-world values, and mandatory reductions for official values will not be reflected in the actual CO2 emissions. This will undermine the EU’s efforts to reduce transport-related CO2 emissions and result in consumers paying more for fuel than anticipated.”

To prevent the gap from growing, the European Commission is mandated by the CO2 standards regulation to assess the development of a mechanism or process. This mechanism would adjust the manufacturers’ CO2 emission performance based on real-world data recorded by on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring (OBFCM) devices. The ICCT study proposes a correction mechanism that would compensate for excess CO2 emissions released due to a growing gap.

“The ICCT has been monitoring these disparities since the early 2010s, and fortunately, EU regulators now have appropriate tools to correct these divergences with transparent and reliable data. Using these tools, a correction mechanism can ensure that the CO2 emissions reduction targets that manufacturers must meet in the coming years are proportionally updated in accordance with the intended original stringency written into the law,” recommends Dr. Peter Mock, ICCT Europe’s Managing Director.

Additionally, on-board fuel consumption data could benefit consumers by providing real-world estimates of emissions and fuel consumption on vehicle efficiency labels. Furthermore, the authors suggest making anonymized OBFCM data, merged with relevant vehicle characteristics, publicly available to facilitate independent research using representative real-world fuel and energy consumption data.

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Media contact
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Publication details
Title: On the way to ‘real-world’ CO2 values? The European passenger car market after 5 years of WLTP
Authors: Jan Dornoff, Victor Valverde Morales, Uwe Tietge

Please use this link when citing this report: https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-CO2-emission-values-vehicles-Europe-jan24

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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Trotz neuem Prüfverfahren: Offizielle und reale Emissions- und Verbrauchswerte von Pkw klaffen erneut auseinander https://theicct.org/pr-de-trotz-neuem-prufverfahren-offizielle-und-reale-emissions-und-verbrauchswerte-von-pkw-klaffen-erneut-auseinander-jan24/ Wed, 31 Jan 2024 04:10:10 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=36300 Eine neue ICCT-Studie zeigt, dass die Differenz zwischen den tatsächlichen CO2-Emissionen und Kraftstoffverbräuchen von Neuwagen und den offiziell angegebenen Werten zwischen 2018 und 2022 von 8 auf 14 Prozent gewachsen ist. Berlin, 31. Januar – Die Differenz zwischen Herstellerangaben und tatsächlichem Kraftstoffverbrauch bzw. CO2-Emissionen von Pkw hat sich trotz Einführung eines neuen Fahrzeugprüfverfahrens erneut vergrößert. […]

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Eine neue ICCT-Studie zeigt, dass die Differenz zwischen den tatsächlichen CO2-Emissionen und Kraftstoffverbräuchen von Neuwagen und den offiziell angegebenen Werten zwischen 2018 und 2022 von 8 auf 14 Prozent gewachsen ist.

Berlin, 31. Januar – Die Differenz zwischen Herstellerangaben und tatsächlichem Kraftstoffverbrauch bzw. CO2-Emissionen von Pkw hat sich trotz Einführung eines neuen Fahrzeugprüfverfahrens erneut vergrößert. 2022 lag sie für in Deutschland zugelassene PKW im Durchschnitt bei 14 Prozent, das heißt, die Werte im realen Betrieb waren um 14 Prozent höher als von den Herstellern angegeben. 2018 lag die Differenz noch bei durchschnittlich 8 Prozent, somit ist sie innerhalb von fünf Jahren um 80 Prozent gewachsen. Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen gefährdet dieser Trend die Wirksamkeit der CO2-Reduktionsmaßnahmen der EU. Zudem führt er bei den Verbrauchern zu falschen Erwartungen in Bezug auf den tatsächlichen Kraftstoffverbrauch und die damit verbundenen Kosten und Umweltauswirkungen.

Das sind zentrale Ergebnisse einer Studie der gemeinnützigen Forschungsorganisation International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). Die Experten haben offizielle CO2 -Emissionsdaten der Europäischen Umweltagentur (EEA) als Maß für den Kraftstoffverbrauch analysiert und mit realen Kraftstoffverbrauchsdaten von mehr als 160.000 Fahrzeugen verglichen. Dabei handelt es sich um Verbrenner- und konventionelle Hybridfahrzeuge, deren Eigentümer ihre Verbrauchsdaten auf der Website spritmonitor.de hinterlegt haben. (Plug-in-Hybride wurden in einer früheren Studie separat analysiert).

Offizielle CO2 Emissionswerte werden in einer kontrollierten Laborumgebung ermittelt. 2017 wurde dafür das neue Prüfverfahren Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) eingeführt, das den früheren Neuen Europäischen Fahrzyklus (NEFZ) ablöste. Die WLTP-Werte sind repräsentativer als die des NEFZ, weshalb die Differenz zwischen Labor- und realen Werten zunächst von 33 Prozent im Jahr 2018 auf 8 Prozent im gleichen Jahr schrumpfte. Die aktuellen Zahlen zeigen allerdings, dass sich der Abstand jetzt wieder vergrößert. Die Folge: Offiziell sind die CO2-Emissionswerte zwischen 2018 und 2022 um rund 7,3 Prozent gesunken, im Realbetrieb auf der Straße bleibt von der erzielten Reduktion aber mit 2,3 Prozent nur weniger als ein Drittel übrig.

Abweichung zwischen realen und nach NEFZ bzw. WLTP typgenehmigten CO2 Emissionswerten von in Deutschland zugelassenen Pkw. Datenquellen: Europäische Umweltagentur (EEA) und spritmonitor.de

“Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass die Differenz zwischen den offiziellen Angaben und den realen CO2 Emissionen auch nach Einführung von WLTP wieder wächst“, sagt Jan Dornoff, leitender Wissenschaftler beim ICCT und Mitverfasser des Berichts. „Wird hier nicht gegengesteuert, verlieren die offiziellen CO2-Emissionswerte zunehmend an Aussagekraft für die tatsächlichen Emissionen. So kommen dann auch die verpflichtend vorgesehenen Reduktionen der offiziellen Werte nicht in der realen Welt an. Das untergräbt die Bemühungen der EU zur Verringerung der verkehrsbedingten CO2 -Emissionen und führt dazu, dass die Verbraucher mehr für Kraftstoff bezahlen müssen als erwartet.”

Um diese negativen Folgen zu verhindern, ist die Europäische Kommission durch die CO2-Verordnung aufgefordert, die Entwicklung eines Mechanismus zu prüfen, der ein Wachstum des Abstandes zwischen realen und offiziellen CO2-Emissionen verhindert. Dazu sollen reale Kraftstoffverbrauchsdaten herangezogen werden, die mit so genannten OBFCM-Geräten (on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring devices) erfasst und aufgezeichnet werden. Die ICCT-Experten schlagen in ihrer Studie einen Korrekturmechanismus vor, der die durch die Abweichung der realen von den offiziellen Werten verursachten zusätzlichen CO2-Emissionen ausgleichen würde.

“Wir beobachten die wachsende Differenz zwischen angegebenen und tatsächlichen Kraftstoffverbräuchen seit Anfang der 2010er Jahre“, sagt Dr. Peter Mock, Geschäftsführer des ICCT Europe. „Zum Glück verfügen die EU-Regulierungsbehörden jetzt über geeignete Instrumente, um diese Abweichungen auf Basis transparenter und zuverlässiger Daten auszugleichen. Damit lässt sich ein Korrekturmechanismus einrichten, der sicherstellt, dass die offiziellen CO2-Emissionswerte, die die Hersteller in den kommenden Jahren erfüllen müssen, so aktualisiert werden, dass sie auch real den ursprünglich beabsichtigten und gesetzlich festgeschriebenen Minderungszielen entsprechen.“

Darüber hinaus könnten On-Board-Kraftstoffverbrauchsdaten auch als Basis dienen, um Verbraucher besser und realistischer über die Kosten und Umweltauswirkungen von Fahrzeugen zu informieren. Zudem schlagen die Autoren vor, OBFCM-Daten anonymisiert und ergänzt um relevante Fahrzeugmerkmale öffentlich zugänglich zu machen, um unabhängige Forschung mit repräsentativen realen Kraftstoff- und Energieverbrauchsdaten zu ermöglichen.

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Medienkontakt
Susana Irles, susana.irles@theicct.org
+49 (0) 302 332 68412

Details zur Veröffentlichung
Titel: On the way to ‘real-world’ CO2 values? The European passenger car market after 5 years of WLTP
Autoren: Jan Dornoff, Victor Valverde Morales, Uwe Tietge

Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, wenn Sie den Bericht zitieren: https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-CO2-emission-values-vehicles-Europe-jan24

Über den International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
Der International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) ist eine unabhängige, gemeinnützige Forschungsorganisation, die gegründet wurde, um spezialisierte, objektive und bedarfsgerechte Forschung sowie technische und wissenschaftliche Analysen für Umweltbehörden bereitzustellen. Unsere Arbeit unterstützt politische und andere Entscheidungsträger auf der ganzen Welt dabei, die Umweltverträglichkeit des Straßen-, See- und Luftverkehrs zu verbessern, mit dem Ziel die öffentliche Gesundheit zu fördern und den Klimawandel abzuschwächen. Unsere Zusammenarbeit als Gruppe gleichgesinnter politischer Entscheidungsträger und technischer Experten wurde 2005 mit dem Status einer gemeinnützigen Nichtregierungsorganisation formal geregelt.

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 On the way to ‘real-world’ CO2 values? The European passenger car market after 5 years of WLTP https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-co2-emission-values-vehicles-europe-jan24/ Tue, 30 Jan 2024 22:00:25 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=36237 This report investigates the gap between real-world and official or type-approval CO2 emissions of the European passenger car market since introducing a new test procedure, the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).

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This paper investigates how the gap, or divergence, between official and real-world data on CO2 emissions from passenger cars in the EU has developed since introducing a new type-approval test procedure, the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). The results indicate that there is a growing divergence between real-world and WLTP CO2 emissions data for internal combustion engine cars and hybrid cars, as observed for New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) type-approved vehicles in the past.

Figure 1 shows that the official WLTP type-approval CO2 emission values are more representative of real-world values than the ones from the previous NEDC test procedure. Our analysis shows a divergence of 7.7% for WLTP in 2018 compared to 32.7% for NEDC. However, the gap between real-world and official CO2 emissions increased by over 80% in the 5 years since the introduction of the WLTP, reaching 14.1% in 2022.

Figure 1. Divergence between real-world and type-approval CO2 emission values for internal combustion engine and hybrid passenger cars registered in Germany. Data sources: European Environmental Agency (EEA) and spritmonitor.de

This growing gap diminishes the effectiveness of the European Union’s CO2 standards in reducing tailpipe CO2 emissions from cars and vans. This is because CO2 reduction goals are implemented by setting lower targets for official CO2 emissions. The growing gap between official and real-world emission values, however, leads to a lower reduction in real-world CO2 emissions than intended by the regulators.

Figure 2 compares the reduction in official versus real-world CO2 emissions between 2009 and 2022. While official CO2 emission values decreased by 19.5%,real-world emissions decreased by only 5.8% over the same period due to the growing gap.

Figure 2. Reduction of internal combustion engine and hybrid car type-approval and real-world CO2 emissions since the adoption of CO2 standards in the EU in 2009 and 2022. WLTP CO2 emissions in 2022 were converted to NEDC-equivalent values using a conversion factor of 1.21.

The analysis is based on official CO2 emission data reported by the European Environment Agency (EEA) combined with real-world fuel-consumption information from more than 160,000 combustion engine and conventional hybrid cars reported by consumers on the spritmonitor.de platform.

The European Commission has been tasked through the CO2 standards regulation with developing a mechanism or process that prevents this gap from growing. For this purpose, real-world fuel consumption data recorded by on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring (OBFCM) devices should be used. However, while the availability of OBFCM data will allow the implementation of such a mechanism by 2027, regulators foresee this measure starting in 2030.

Based on the analysis, the authors offer the following recommendations to prevent the gap from growing and mitigate excess CO2 emissions caused by a growing gap, using reliable and transparent data:

  • The European Commission could develop a mechanism that prevents further growth of the gap, and a proposal for such a mechanism is provided in this paper. The described mechanism intends to both mitigate the growing gap and compensate for the excess real-world CO2 emissions released prior to the introduction of a correction mechanism.
  • The availability of OBFCM real-world consumption data would support applying the correction mechanism starting in 2027.
  • Real-world fuel consumption estimates could be displayed on vehicle efficiency labels for consumers.
  • Anonymized OBFCM data could be made publicly available.
  • OBFCM could be made mandatory for electric vehicles to ensure the availability of real-world energy consumption data.

Read more in our press release in German and English.

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Pedro Logiodice https://theicct.org/team-member/pedro-logiodice/ Wed, 02 Aug 2023 19:12:26 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=team-member&p=27192 Pedro Logiodice is a LATAM Associate Researcher at the ICCT São Paulo office, contributing in the Zero Emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) initiative, which is committed to transforming the Latin American bus market to zero emissions. Before joining ICCT, Pedro specialized in spatial big data analysis at SPTrans, the municipal public transport agency in São […]

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Pedro Logiodice is a LATAM Associate Researcher at the ICCT São Paulo office, contributing in the Zero Emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) initiative, which is committed to transforming the Latin American bus market to zero emissions. Before joining ICCT, Pedro specialized in spatial big data analysis at SPTrans, the municipal public transport agency in São Paulo, Brazil. He also served as a consultant at the World Bank Group (WB and IFC), where he was involved in public transportation projects. He holds both a Master’s degree in Transportation Engineering and a Bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering from the University of São Paulo (USP). Throughout his academic journey, he delved into research on urban transport, with a keen focus on inequality and justice.

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“Suspicious” emission levels were found in at least 77% of tests of diesel cars in Europe https://theicct.org/pr-dieselgate-emissions-diesel-cars-europe-mar23/ Wed, 22 Mar 2023 20:03:42 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=24603 “Suspicious” nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission levels were found in at least 77% of tests performed on diesel cars in Europe. These excess emissions indicate the “likely use” of an engine calibration strategy that may now be classified as a prohibited defeat device based on recent rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU).

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The “suspicious” levels of nitrogen oxide emissions indicate the “likely use” of what is now considered a prohibited defeat device, according to the latest Dieselgate rulings of the EU’s highest court.   

Berlin, 22 March 2023— “Suspicious” nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission levels were found in at least 77% of tests performed on diesel cars in Europe. These excess emissions indicate the “likely use” of an engine calibration strategy that may now be classified as a prohibited defeat device based on recent rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU).

A new study, carried out by the non-profit research organization International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and published today, assesses the magnitude of “suspicious” and “extreme” emission levels shown in post-Dieselgate testing performed by government and independent organizations since 2016. The emission levels are defined based on expected emission behavior for given types of tests.

Approximately 53 million diesel cars were sold in Europe from 2009 to 2019, emitting high levels of NOx, a hazardous air pollutant that poses a significant risk to human health. A companion analysis by the ICCT estimates that 19 million vehicles with “suspicious” emissions remain in use today – of these, 13 million vehicles were models showing “extreme” emissions. The issue of excess NOx emissions is prevalent across manufacturers.

According to the investigation, not only did a large majority of tests (85% for Euro 5 and 77% for Euro 6 diesel cars) show “suspicious” excess emissions, but also many showed “extreme” emission levels. “Extreme” emission levels were found in at least 40% of official tests of diesel cars, indicating the “almost certain” presence of a calibration strategy that may now be considered a prohibited defeat device.

The ICCT also assessed data collected through past remote sensing campaigns, which measure the real-world emissions of vehicles from the roadside as drivers pass. The data, consisting of 700,000 measurements in five European countries, showed that approximately 75% of diesel car engine families’ emission averages were found to exceed the “extreme” threshold.

It is difficult to dispute what is a large amount of analyzed data and testing collected from multiple sources. All of them point in the same direction. After the CJEU rulings, these results present a solid body of evidence for authorities to investigate and potentially take corrective action to address health risks posed by European diesel cars driven on our roads”, says Peter Mock, ICCT’s Europe Managing Director.

A defeat device is a software code installed in the vehicle to alter or deactivate the emissions control system under certain operating conditions. The use of defeat devices was at the center of the 2015 Dieselgate scandal.

European courts continue to review evidence from related cases. In a ruling released in December 2020, the CJEU clarified the conditions under which defeat devices are prohibited, even for vehicles sold prior to the decision. It stated that “only immediate risks of damage which create a specific hazard when the vehicle is driven… justify the use of a defeat device” (C-693/18). The judges broadly limited the scope of exemptions. Additional CJEU rulings in July 2022 further clarified that defeat devices cannot be justified in any event if they operate throughout most of the year during normal driving conditions.

“The levels of emissions found in the tests offer wide-ranging data to estimate the prevalence of prohibited defeat devices. What we found is that vehicles surpassing the “extreme” threshold is a red flag and should pose questions about the rationale for their emission behavior. A total of 150 vehicle models show emissions above it and represent about 13 million vehicles still on the road in the EU-27 and UK,” stated Yoann Bernard, Senior Researcher at the ICCT.

The ICCT report also analyzed the statements presented by manufacturers during investigations conducted by national market surveillance in four European countries. From these statements, the ICCT identified 66 vehicle models that used calibration strategies that are now considered prohibited defeat devices based on the latest CJEU rulings because they function during normal driving conditions. Most of these vehicle models (48) use emission calibration strategies that alter or deactivate the emissions control system in low ambient temperatures which are typical within the EU.

EU law mandates that Member States have the responsibility to investigate cases of potential defeat devices and to require manufacturers to take corrective action if a prohibited defeat device is found. The 2020 ruling from the CJEU still applies in the UK as retained EU law, and therefore must inform the UK government’s interpretation of rules prohibiting the use of defeat devices.

Since the Dieselgate scandal, only some manufacturers have performed recalls and updates of diesel cars in Europe. The impact of these updates is unclear as many vehicles have not been retested, or the testing results have not been released publicly.

Air pollution continues to be the biggest environmental health hazard in Europe. Diesel vehicles are a major contributor, largely due to high NOx emissions. In the region, 35,400 premature deaths were linked to on-road diesel vehicle emissions in 2015 or 14% of all air pollution-related premature deaths.

end

Note to the editors:

The “extreme” threshold indicates a level of emissions so far in excess of regulatory limits that explanations for it other than the presence of a defeat device are highly unlikely. Circumstances that could lead to extreme emissions without a defeat device could exist, such as undetected individual vehicle malfunctions, undetected aftertreatment system regeneration during the test, measurement instrument malfunctions, or a widespread malfunction across a vehicle family. Such conditions are exceedingly rare, but always theoretically possible. To acknowledge the remaining small degree of uncertainty, we, therefore, conclude that tests and vehicle models crossing the extreme threshold indicate that the use of a defeat device is almost, but not perfectly, certain.

Media contact
Susana Irles, susana.irles@theicct.org

Publication details
Reassessment of excess NOx from diesel cars in Europe following the Court Justice of the European Union rulingsAuthors: Michelle Meyer, Yoann Bernard, John German, Tim Dallmann

Factsheet:
Available in English, German, French, Spanish, and Italian.

Blog post: It’s time for Europe to address diesel defeat devices once and for all

Please use this link when citing the report.

About the International Council on Clean Transportation

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

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Acknowledgments
The ICCT thanks ClientEarth for providing legal expertise that helped to shape the scope of the report’s analysis and for valuable discussions regarding Court of Justice of the European Union rulings on defeat devices. For more details on ClientEarth’s work in this area, please visit: https://www.clientearth.org/

 

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Reassessing NOX emissions from diesel cars after the EU’s top court defeat device rulings https://theicct.org/publication/fs-dieselgate-emissions-diesel-cars-europe-mar23/ Wed, 22 Mar 2023 20:00:36 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=24541 Summarizes research exploring how many vehicle models in Europe likely use what may now be considered a prohibited defeat device

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Reassessment of excess NOx from diesel cars in Europe following the Court Justice of the European Union rulings https://theicct.org/publication/dieselgate-emissions-diesel-cars-europe-mar23/ Wed, 22 Mar 2023 20:00:35 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=24531 Estimates the number of vehicle models in Europe that likely use what may now be considered a prohibited defeat device

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The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) clarified the definition of a prohibited defeat device in a series of recent rulings, limiting their use to when “only immediate risks of damage” are present. This report analyzes testing data and examines market surveillance interviews to determine how many vehicle models likely have defeat devices under the CJEU definition. Results are analyzed by vehicle model and engine family against emission thresholds developed in this report which identify if a prohibited defeat device is likely or almost certainly present. These thresholds are based on expected engine behavior and testing data from other vehicle groups.

“Suspicious” NOx emission levels were found in 77%–100% of tests and vehicle averages, indicating the likely use of a prohibited defeat device. Of 1,400 total tests conducted under controlled settings by government authorities, 85% of tests on Euro 5 vehicles and 77% of tests on pre-RDE Euro 6 vehicles exceed the suspicious emissions threshold. Similar rates are observed for government tests conducted under real-world conditions. Results from independent real-world testing show that up to 100% of vehicle model averages exceed the suspicious threshold.

“Extreme” NOx emissions were found in 40%–75% of tests and vehicle averages, indicating that a prohibited defeat device is almost certainly present. Approximately 42% of the 1,400 official government tests under controlled settings exceed the extreme threshold. Real-world testing by government authorities and independent bodies shows similar or higher rates of extreme emissions. Remote sensing data show that approximately 75% of engine family averages exceed the extreme threshold.

Over 200 unique vehicle models show high NOx emissions above the “suspicious” threshold and over 150 unique vehicle models show NOx emissions above the “extreme” threshold. Nearly all vehicle models tested by official government authorities show suspicious emissions in at least one test, and nearly 70% of vehicle models showed extreme emissions in at least one test.

Fact sheets: In English, Auf Deutsch, En Français, In Italiano, En Español
Blog post
Press release

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It’s time for Europe to address diesel defeat devices once and for all https://theicct.org/diesel-defeat-devices-mar23/ Wed, 22 Mar 2023 20:00:24 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=24551 Over seven years after the Dieselgate scandal first broke, high emissions from diesel vehicles are still a widespread issue

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Over seven years have passed since the “Dieselgate” scandal first broke, revealing the widespread use of defeat devices, or calibration strategies intended disable or reduce the efficiency of emission control systems, in diesel vehicles. Substantial evidence has shown that diesel cars across manufacturers emit high levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) during real-world operation. Yet, due to limited corrective action, these vehicles continue to operate across Europe today, harming the health of all who are exposed to the air pollution these emissions create.

In 2016, the ICCT’s John German wrote how the use of defeat devices extends beyond Volkswagen, concluding that EU regulations need to establish a clear and explicit definition of defeat devices to fully address the issue. Recently, the Court Justice of the European Union (CJEU) did just that, clarifying in four rulings what constitutes a prohibited defeat device. Many of these prohibited strategies were common among diesel car manufacturers before the Real Driving Emissions (RDE) testing procedure was introduced, offering grounds for reinvestigating diesel cars showing high NOx emissions.

A new ICCT report reassesses emissions testing results to estimate the prevalence of prohibited defeat devices in pre-RDE diesel cars sold from 2009 to 2019 in Europe, looking at data from official government laboratory and real-world testing, independent testing, and an extensive database of remote sensing measurements. The analysis found that “suspicious” levels of NOx emissions were shown in at least 77% of official government tests and in up to 100% of vehicles in independent testing and remote sensing data, indicating the likely use of a prohibited defeat device. Of the 219 unique vehicle models tested, 209 showed suspicious emissions in at least one test. Over two thirds of the vehicle models tested showed “extreme” emissions, indicating that a defeat device is almost certainly present.

Over 200 unique vehicle models showing evidence of the likely use of a prohibited defeat device is a lot, but what does this mean in terms of the numbers of vehicles sold and those still operating today? Using market statistics compiled by the ICCT, we estimate in total, approximately 53 million diesel cars certified to the Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 standards were sold in the EU and UK. Using a conservative estimate and considering only the vehicles tested by official government authorities, approximately 24 million diesel cars sold show suspicious emissions – of these, 16.3 million diesel cars sold show extreme emissions. The breakdown by country is shown below in Figure 1. These numbers would be higher if government authorities widened their testing to investigate more vehicle models, such as the 60 additional vehicle models showing suspicious emissions in independent testing and remote sensing.

A large majority of these vehicles are still driven today. Using methods from ICCT’s ROADMAP model to determine likely fleet turnover, we estimate that 19.1 million vehicles showing suspicious emissions are currently in use – of these, 13.0 million vehicles show extreme emissions.

Table showing number of vehicles sold and remaining on the road that have suspicious or extreme emissions

Figure 1. Total number of sold and remaining diesel Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 cars showing suspicious and extreme emissions by EU member state + UK

Our review shows that the issue of high NOx emissions is prevalent across manufacturers, as illustrated in Figure 2 below. As the largest manufacturer of diesel cars in Europe, Volkswagen Group produced the largest number of vehicles showings suspicious emissions. However, several other manufacturers sold millions of vehicles showing suspicious and extreme emissions. For example, Renault-Nissan sold over 4 million vehicles showing extreme emissions. As a percentage of total sales, nearly all manufacturer groups sold higher shares of vehicles showing extreme emissions compared to Volkswagen Group.

Chart showing sales of diesel Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 cars with suspicious and extreme emissions by manufacturer group

Figure 2. Total sales of diesel Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 cars showing suspicious and extreme emissions by manufacturer group, 2009-2019

The top ten most popular vehicle models that show extreme emissions in official government testing collectively account for approximately 4.5 million sales (Figure 3). Nearly all of these models also show extreme emissions in independent real-world testing or remote sensing. Three of the top ten models showing extreme emissions are manufactured by Volkswagen Group and use EA189 engines, which were subject to mandatory software updates but still showed emissions well above the regulatory limit after the recalls.

List of diesel Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 passenger car models, 2009-2019, showing extreme emissions and their total sales

Figure 3. Top diesel Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 passenger car models, 2009-2019, showing extreme emissions and their total sales in the EU-27 and UK

Evidence began to illuminate the issue of high diesel NOx emissions during real-world driving over eight years ago, and this reassessment of emissions data helps show even more clearly just how widespread the likely use of prohibited defeat devices is. Although corrective action has been limited to date, there have been important responses to the evidence showing widespread excess NOx emissions from diesel cars. The recently announced Euro 7 regulation introduces more comprehensive testing requirements, which will help improve the enforcement of real-world emissions. At a city level, low-emission zones have been implemented across Europe to address air quality by targeting diesel cars and other high-emitting vehicle groups.

But these measures alone cannot clean up the tens of millions of diesel cars that continue to emit NOx emissions several times above the legal limit. Now that the CJEU rulings have removed a huge barrier to defeat device enforcement, it’s time for EU member states and the UK to fully address the issue of excess NOx from diesel cars.

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Emissions performance of Euro VI-D buses and recommendations for Euro 7 standards https://theicct.org/publication/euro-vi-d-buses-feb23/ Wed, 08 Feb 2023 12:00:48 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=24002 Summarizes findings of on-road measurements on two buses type-approved to the Euro VI-D standard and compares the results against the proposed limits under Euro 7

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The proposed Euro 7 standards, which are to be implemented in 2027, set lower emissions limits than the current regulation, Euro VI, while expanding the driving conditions that are evaluated. This study provides insight into the emissions performance of the latest generation of diesel buses in Europe. The ICCT collaborated with VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd (VTT) to perform a series of on-road measurements on two buses type-approved to the Euro VI-D standard over various duty cycles. This working paper is a summary of the key findings.

The analysis found that both buses exhibited emissions performance generally in accordance with the Euro VI-D type-approval requirements. However, the NOx emissions over the highest emitting test windows were three to five times higher than the proposed Euro 7 cold limit. NOx emissions in hot operation ranged between one and four times the proposed Euro 7 hot limit.

One of the buses tested exhibited ammonia emissions performance 40% below the proposed Euro 7 limit, while the other bus exhibited emissions 40% above it. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed 7% to 9% of the greenhouse gas emissions of the buses tested. The proposed Euro 7 limits for these emissions are close to the reductions can be achieved with current emissions control technologies.

The particulate number requirements under Euro 7 would demand higher filtration efficiency than what current technologies offer. The number of particles in the 10 to 23 nm size range, which would also now be regulated under Euro 7, is substantial and would increase the PN count between 60% and 100%.

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Analysis of electric bus performance monitoring in Mexico City https://theicct.org/publication/mexico-hvs-zebra-analysis-elec-bus-performance-cdmx-jan23/ Wed, 01 Feb 2023 15:36:04 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=23659 Analyzes the performance of electric buses in Mexico City using telematics equipment

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Mexico City has set for itself the goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2050. Public transport fleets have been identified as a vehicle segment with great potential for successfully transitioning to zero-emission technologies in the short term.  Among many actions, the city government has committed that, by 2024, a Metrobús line will be zero emission.

This report analyzes the performance and energy consumption of an electric articulated bus over a 10-month period in Mexico City. Making use of telematics equipment, the daily operation of the bus was monitored to evaluate the operational performance of the vehicle.

The bus met the operating requirements, traveling between 250 km and 325 km for two-thirds of the monitoring period. For 99% of this period, energy consumption per kilometer traveled ranged between 0.86 and 1.0 kWh/km. Similarly, the energy regenerated by the braking system ranged between 21% and 24%, equivalent to approximately 130 kWh per day.

Additionally, energy consumption per kilometer was determined for different load scenarios, which covered and exceeded the load capacity of the bus without incurring any risk, according to the manufacturer’s specifications. According to the analysis, energy consumption of the empty vehicle was 0.92 kWh/km, while at 105% of capacity, consumption was 1.23 kWh/km. This suggests that, during the monitoring period, vehicle occupancy was low, consistent with the confinement period instituted because of the SARS-CoV-2 health emergency. For this reason, it is recommended to use as a reference the consumption levels determined through the controlled load test with, rather than the values recorded during the monitoring period.

Image of a Yutong electric articulated bus model E18-ZK6180BEVG. Photo credit: Carlos Jiménez.

Figure. Yutong electric articulated bus model E18-ZK6180BEVG. Photo: Carlos Jiménez.

 

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