The paper uses a model incorporating Indonesian-specific data and global trends and provides detailed projections and policy recommendations to support the effective and efficient deployment of EV charging infrastructure.

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O setor de transporte no Brasil se destaca devido ao seu forte foco em biocombustíveis, com a maioria dos carros de passageiros sendo veículos flex (92% das vendas em 2020), operando com uma proporção significativa de etanol à base de cana-de-açúcar na mistura média de combustível. Ainda assim, depois da agricultura e da mudança no uso da terra, o setor de transporte é a terceira maior fonte de emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) no país. Alcançar a meta do Brasil de zerar as emissões de GEE líquidas até 2050 dependerá, portanto, de uma redução rápida das emissões de GEE nesse setor.

Este estudo avalia quais tipos de motores a combustão ou elétricos permitem a maior redução das emissões de GEE de carros de passageiros. A avaliação do ciclo de vida (ACV) inclui as emissões da fabricação de veículos e baterias, bem como a queima de combustível, a produção de combustível e eletricidade e a manutenção. O estudo compara veículos com motor de combustão interna flex (ICEVs) e veículos elétricos a bateria (BEVs) usando veículos novos médios nas categorias compacta, média e SUV compacto. Quando possível, as emissões de veículos elétricos híbridos (HEVs), veículos elétricos híbridos plug-in (PHEVs) e veículos elétricos a célula de combustível a hidrogênio (FCEVs) também são avaliadas.

O estudo constata que as emissões do ciclo de vida dos ICEVs flex variam amplamente quando operados com gasolina C, etanol ou uma mistura dos dois combustíveis. Isso implica que, para uma avaliação representativa de suas emissões, as proporções médias de gasolina C e etanol no mercado precisam ser consideradas. Com a matriz elétrica brasileira, os BEVs atuais emitem cerca de um terço das emissões do ciclo de vida dos ICEVs flex e os modelos futuros podem se aproximar de emissões zero. Os FCEVs a hidrogênio mostram uma redução semelhante nas emissões de GEE, mas somente quando operados com hidrogênio verde baseado em eletricidade renovável. Híbridos e híbridos plug-in, ao contrário, mostram apenas uma redução limitada nas emissões de GEE e não alcançam emissões zero a longo prazo. Essas descobertas refletem as mesmas tendências observadas em análises anteriores do ICCT de veículos na China, Europa, Índia e Estados Unidos.

Com base nessas descobertas, este estudo também apresenta uma série de recomendações de políticas para descarbonizar o setor de transporte. Em particular, metas ambiciosas nos padrões de emissões de CO2 do próximo Programa Mobilidade Verde e Inovação – PROMOVI (anteriormente Rota 2030) poderiam estabelecer as bases para aumentar continuamente a produção de veículos elétricos no Brasil. Isso ajudaria a alinhar o setor de transporte com as metas climáticas do governo. Além disso, incluir as emissões de mudança no uso da terra no programa de biocombustíveis RenovaBio ajudaria a melhorar a sustentabilidade do etanol.

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The transportation sector in Brazil stands out due to its strong focus on biofuels, with most passenger cars being gasoline-ethanol flex-fuel vehicles (92% of sales in 2020) operating on a high share of sugarcane-based ethanol in the average fuel mix. Still, after agriculture and land use change, the transport sector is the third largest source of GHG emissions in the country. Reaching Brazil’s target of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 will thus depend on a swift reduction of GHG emissions in this sector.

This study evaluates which combustion engine and electric power train types allow the largest reduction of GHG emissions from passenger cars. The life-cycle assessment (LCA) includes the emissions of vehicle and battery manufacturing, as well as fuel combustion, fuel and electricity production, and maintenance. The study compares flex-fuel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) using average new vehicles across the compact, medium, and compact SUV segments. Where possible, the emissions of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are also assessed.

The study finds that the life-cycle emissions of flex-fuel ICEVs vary largely when operated on gasoline C, on ethanol, or on a mix of the two fuels. This implies that for a representative assessment of their emissions, the market average shares of gasoline C and ethanol need to be considered. With the corresponding average electricity mix, current BEVs emit about one third of the life-cycle emissions of gasoline-ethanol flex-fuel ICEVs and future models can approach zero emissions. Hydrogen FCEVs show a similar reduction in GHG emissions, but only when operated on renewable electricity-based (green) hydrogen. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids, in contrast, only show a limited reduction in GHG emissions and do not reach zero emissions in the long term. These findings reflect the same trends observed in previous ICCT analyses of vehicles in China, Europe, India, and the United States.

Based on these findings, this study also presents a series of policy recommendations for decarbonizing the transport sector. In particular, ambitious targets in the CO₂ emission standards of the upcoming Green Mobility and Innovation Program – PROMOVI (formerly Rota 2030), could lay the groundwork for continuously increasing electric vehicle production in Brazil. This would help to align the transport sector with the government’s climate targets. Further, including land use change emissions in the RenovaBio biofuels program would help to improve the sustainability of ethanol.

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The Inflation Reduction Act, now past its first anniversary, gives consumers and automakers in the United States a strong incentive to buy or sell a new electric vehicle (EV): a federal tax credit of up to $7,500. But for vehicles to qualify for the full clean vehicle credit, both the minerals and the components used in lithium-ion EV batteries must meet new provisions aimed at strengthening the domestic supply chain.  

By 2027, 80% of the value of critical minerals in the EV battery must be mined or processed in North America, mined or processed in countries with a free trade agreement with the United States, or recycled in North America. By 2029, 100% of the value of the components in a battery must be manufactured or assembled in North America. Also key: starting in 2024, electric vehicles that contain battery components or minerals from China and other so-called “foreign entities of concern” will not be eligible for the Clean Vehicle Credit. These requirements are a big change from the status quo. Up to today, most of the lithium, cobalt, graphite, and nickel used in EV batteries are processed by China and mined in other parts of the world, like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia. While the United States has some deposits of the needed minerals and there are plans to build refining capacity, the global distribution of minerals and China’s head start suggest that meeting these requirements solely through mining and processing will be challenging. 

Luckily, the domestic content requirements of the Clean Vehicle credit can be met in another way: procuring the minerals from recycling battery material. Right now, the EV battery recycling industry is in its infancy: in fact, most of the lithium-ion battery materials going into recycling plants today do not come from end-of-life EV batteries but rather from scrap material created during lithium-ion battery production. This makes sense, given that most EV batteries produced through 2023 are still on the road. But with the Inflation Reduction Act potentially adding 37 million EVs on the roads between 2023 and 2032, recycling end-of-life EV batteries will take on new urgency.  

It is also worth mentioning that collecting and ultimately recycling EV batteries as they leave the roads is imperative from both an environmental and health perspective. Indeed, if improperly disposed, the batteries could cause fires or contaminate lands and waters with toxic chemical substances. Failure to recycle EV end-of-life batteries will also be an economic loss when considering the valuable materials they contain, such as cobalt or nickel. 

An important piece of information, therefore, is whether the U.S EV battery industry is ready for the upcoming challenges. In an effort to answer this question, we gathered information about operational and announced recycling capacity as of September 2023 from news articles and press releases. The results are illustrated in the interactive map below.  

An interesting observation when looking at the map is that recycling plants are being built in regions where EV and lithium-ion battery production sites are already located. This creates a coherent ecosystem where the recycled material can easily be fed back into the lithium-ion battery and EV production lines. 

When adding up the annual capacities of all the lithium-ion battery recycling plants that were operational by the end of 2022, we see that at least 105,150 tons of minerals can be recycled annually. This is sufficient material to produce 220,300 electric car batteries each year, assuming that the average EV battery weighs about 1,000 pounds. However, if announced recycling plants as of September 2023 are also taken into account, a recycling capacity of at least 652,293 tons per year could be expected by 2030. That’s sufficient to handle about 1.3 million end-of-life electric car batteries annually.

〉Download the list of operational and announced recycling plants

The figure below highlights installed U.S. recycling capacity in 2023 and expected capacity in 2030 compared to the tons of end-of-life batteries that could become available for recycling in the country. These numbers were determined from projected EV sales and vehicle lifespans following the same methodology as described in our study on scaling up the reuse and recycling of EV batteries. The weight of end-of-life batteries is approximated using selected materials critical to lithium-ion batteries: cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel, iron, phosphorous, graphite, copper, and aluminum.  

We see from the figure that the 2023 operational recycling capacity should be sufficient to process end-of-life batteries from BEVs (battery electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) up to the year 2036. When recycling plants announced as of September 2023 are included, sufficient capacity is available to recycle end-of-life batteries until 2044. Not shown in the figure are the additional tons of recyclable material from battery production scrap. According to analysts at Benchmark, this production scrap is expected to be the main source for recycling plants until 2030, but in the longer term, this will represent a small amount of overall material compared to end-of-life batteries.  

Uncertainties at the supply chain level suggest that the battery recycling space could gain momentum globally in the years to come. While most governments are just starting to think through these issues, our study on battery reuse and recycling found that jurisdictions like California, China, and the European Union are already proposing policies for the responsible handling of end-of-life EV batteries. In California, for example, the Advanced Clean Car II Regulations (ACC II) require manufacturers to affix permanent labels on batteries to disclose information on their chemistries and other information. Making battery chemistries and other data more transparent will enable third-party recyclers — not just the original manufacturers — to also contribute to recycling efforts and potentially encourage more innovation in the recycling processes. In the European Union, the new battery regulation stimulates recycling by requiring that by 2031, all newly manufactured batteries include a certain share of recycled material (e.g., 16% for cobalt and 6% for lithium and nickel). In China, every EV battery produced or imported is recorded in a database and tracked throughout its lifetime to ensure it gets collected and recycled when it reaches its end of life.  

We will continue to monitor and analyze the development of EV battery recycling policies around the globe. Such policies will become increasingly critical—for the environment, human health, and EV supply chains—as tens of millions of batteries reach the ends of their lives. 

 

Authors

Alexander Tankou
Associate Researcher

Dale Hall
Senior Researcher

Print

SectorHeavy vehiclesLight vehicles

PoliciesElectrification

Technology & ScienceBatteries and fuel cells

RegionUnited States

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Reaching Indonesia’s target of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2060 or sooner will depend in part on the decarbonization of the transportation sector, which today is responsible for about 15% of the country’s GHG emissions. Indonesia is considering a range of measures, including shifting from gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and increasing the use of biofuels.

This report presents a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the GHG emissions of passenger cars and two-wheelers with different power trains in Indonesia. It assesses vehicles sold in 2023 and hypothetical vehicles sold in 2030, and encompasses emissions from fuel combustion, fuel and electricity production, vehicle maintenance, and vehicle and battery manufacturing. The assessment finds that BEVs offer the lowest life-cycle emissions across all segments and can bring significant emissions reduction in line with the net-zero goal. Importantly, as the electricity mix is expected to decarbonize over time, the GHG emission benefit continuously increases for future BEVs, as illustrated in the figure below. HEVs and PHEVs, meanwhile, do not offer a deep reduction in emissions from the passenger car and two-wheeler fleets in Indonesia, as they remain largely dependent on the combustion of fossil fuels. The findings reflect the same trends observed in previous ICCT analyses of vehicles in China, Europe, India, and the United States.

Figure 14. Life-cycle GHG emissions of A segment, SUV segment, and MPV segment gasoline ICEVs and BEVs, as well as electric and combustion engine scooters sold in Indonesia in 2023 and in 2030. The error bars indicate differences between the development of the electricity mix according to a current policy Baseline scenario (higher values) and a development in line with the Government’s target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2060.

This report is a valuable resource for policymakers in Indonesia, as reducing transport emissions while the vehicle fleet is likely to expand due to economic growth requires a resolute shift to low-carbon technologies. The authors highlight that with a vehicle lifetime of more than 18 years, a transition to a fully electric fleet by 2060 thus requires that from around 2040, no new combustion engine cars, HEVs, or PHEVs are sold in Indonesia. Beyond GHG emissions, increasing the share of electric vehicles will help mitigate the public health and environmental consequences of air pollution in Indonesian cities, reduce Indonesia’s dependence on oil imports, and reduce public spending on fuel subsidies. As Indonesia is the world’s largest supplier of nickel and has rich reserves of other key battery materials, creating a domestic battery and electric vehicle manufacturing industry is expected to create jobs and grow the economy. The report explores policy options to continuously increase the electric vehicle share in Indonesia and support the development of a domestic battery and electric vehicle supply chain.

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In recent years, China gradually shifted its vehicle-electrification policy efforts to trucks, which are responsible for a disproportionate share of nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the nation’s vehicle fleet. Besides various fiscal and non-fiscal incentives offered to electric trucks, support for battery swapping is playing a key role. The Chinese national government and several local governments have encouraged battery–swapping technology since 2020 and the share of swap-capable vehicles in China’s electric truck sales has been increasing. In 2022, 49.5% of the electric trucks sold in China were swap-capable. These swap-capable electric trucks are mainly used for short-haul applications at ports, mining sites, and in urban logistics. They are typically equipped with a 141 kWh or 282 kWh battery and have a typical one-way trip length of less than 100 km. 

Compared with today’s plug-in charging technologies, the key advantage of battery swapping is the short time required to recharge. With plug-in charging, it usually takes 40 minutes with DC fast charging or several hours via regular charging to recharge an electric truck. In contrast, battery swapping only takes 3–6 minutes. This speed can be appealing for truck owners because trucks are used for commercial purposes; faster charging leaves more time to deliver goods and generate profits.  

To collect firsthand information, we visited several battery–swapping stations for electric trucks in China this summer. We saw that electric trucks usually pulled into the battery–swapping station with a battery state of charge (SOC) of 20%–30%. A robotic arm reaches down from above, takes out the depleted batteries—these weigh approximately 3 tons and are stored behind the driver’s cab—and puts them into storage for recharging. Then the robotic arm takes out fully charged batteries stored by the station and inserts them into the vehicle. After that, the vehicle can drive away and return to operation. 

On the left, a battery-swapping station in Hainan province used by electric concrete mixers and on the right, a station in Shaanxi province used by electric tractor-trailers. Photos by Tianlin Niu.

The battery-swapping stations we visited typically store seven batteries. Depleted batteries swapped from vehicles are charged using DC fast chargers and recall that these need about 40 minutes to get fully recharged. By the time all seven batteries are swapped and the eighth vehicle comes to the station, the first swapped battery has completed recharging and can be used to swap the depleted battery of the eighth vehicle.  

Though battery swapping is gaining in popularity in China today, there are still some hurdles to clear before it becomes widely commercialized. The first is a lack of standardization of batteries. Batteries produced by different manufacturers can vary in shape, size, and how they are connected with vehicles. Thus, at present, truck drivers can only swap batteries at certain battery-swapping stations that can meet their needs. Next is high cost. Based on our interviews with station owners, setting up a battery–swapping station costs around ¥7–8 million (~US$1–1.1 million) today; half of the cost is the batteries stored in the station and the other half comes from equipment, cables, and transformers.  

In October 2021, the Chinese national government initiated a two-year pilot program to promote battery swapping. Eleven cities were selected as the first batch of pilot cities, and three of them are expected to fully focus on swap-capable truck applications. The other eight cities are expected to demonstrate battery swapping on both electric cars and trucks. The program aims to put at least 100,000 swap-capable electric vehicles on the road and build at least 1,000 battery–swapping stations. As mentioned above, some Chinese provinces and cities are also using their own funds to subsidize the construction of battery–swapping stations. Hainan province, for example, provides subsidies equal to 15% of the total construction cost of a battery–swapping station. 

With this strong policy support, it’s likely we’ll see more swap-capable trucks and battery–swapping stations deployed in China in the coming years. At the same time, China is not putting all of its proverbial eggs in the battery–swapping basket. Indeed, it’s among the markets that are most actively developing ultra-fast (i.e., megawatt-level) plug-in charging technologies, as evidenced by the Chaoji standard that China is developing in collaboration with Japan. As the largest truck market and also the largest electric truck market in the world, China’s engagement with diverse charging solutions will provide valuable learning for other markets as they seek to transition to electric trucks. 

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