Newer Tier II engines had significantly higher NO_x emission rates than older Tier I engines. Moreover, there was no statistical difference in NO_x emission rates between unregulated Tier 0 engines and Tier II engines.

Note: white dots show mean; vertical bars show median; box shows interquartile range; whiskers show minimum and maximum (excluding outliers); diamonds show outliers.
Figure S1. Boxplot showing distribution of observed NOx emission rates by engine tier.

The greatest mean NOx emission rates were found at main engine loads below 25%, with emissions averaging 12 g/kWh across all vessel types and engine tiers. Emission rates decrease as main engine loads increase, with mean emission rates of 8.1 g/kWh at loads greater than 75%. Existing NOx test cycles assume that marine engines most often operate at higher engine loads; however, this study finds that engines typically operate at lower engine loads.

NOx regulations could be revised to make them more effective at reducing air pollution. Rather than relying on weighted emissions limits, the International Maritime Organization could consider implementing not-to-exceed (NTE) standards for new and existing ships, particularly focusing on operations at low loads, and including a test point below 25% load.

This paper was revised on 12 October 2023 to correct typographical errors on the y-axis label for Figure 5 and the bottom panel label of Figure 6.

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The regulation, part of the EPA’s Clean Trucks Plan, tightens emission limits from 200 mg/bhp-hr for all diesel engines covered under the rule to 35 mg/bhp-hr for Otto-cycle and Class 4–5 diesel trucks and 50 mg/bhp-hr for Class 6–8 diesel trucks. The new regulation also replaces the not-to-exceed (NTE) testing approach for diesel engines with a two-bin moving average window (MAW) methodology to allow the collection of emissions data across a wider range of operating conditions to be used in determining compliance.

The new rule extends the useful life and warranty requirements starting in model year 2027 and includes mechanisms to generate compliance credits up to model year 2026 to reward the early introduction of engines and vehicles that meet future standards.

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This ICCT policy brief reviews the key elements of this regulation and potential risks for the decarbonization of the transport sector. Some highlights include:

• More ambitious emissions reductions, but only from 2030 onwards. The target for 2025 remains unchanged (-15%), and the 2030 target is strengthened from -37.5% to -55%, relative to a 2021 baseline. For 2035, a 100% reduction target is introduced.
• The door is open for e-fuels. An exception for a new category of zero-emission vehicles which run exclusively on synthetically produced CO2-neutral fuels of non-biological origin is expected to be introduced as a Delegated Act. This category could entail numerous disadvantages.
• Incentives for electric vehicles in the EU CO2 standards will end in 2030. The Zero- and Low-Emission Vehicle (ZLEV) credit threshold of 25% is unlikely to substantially accelerate the market uptake of electric vehicles. Instead, it will likely only weaken the CO2 reduction targets.

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*All times in Central European Summer Time (CEST)

About the CARES project

CARES is a research project funded under the European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme. The project brings together Europe’s experts in non-intrusive vehicle emissions measurement to investigate the use of different remote sensing techniques for monitoring real-world vehicle emissions performance and enforcing compliance with exhaust pollutant standards. Its goal is to lower barriers to the widespread use of these technologies through a combination of technology development, new analysis techniques, proof-of-concept demonstrations, and extensive dissemination of results, findings, and guidance. The project is coordinated by the IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute and runs from May 2019 until April 2023.

For more information, please visit: https://cares-project.eu

This project is receiving funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 814966

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At the start of this month, India implemented Real Driving Emissions (RDE) regulations for passenger cars that require vehicles to meet emissions limits during on-road driving in addition to laboratory test conditions. The RDE testing in India involves a range of conditions for various testing parameters and this is a positive step that can be traced back to the “Dieselgate” scandal, which affected the automotive business worldwide and led policymakers to adopt tighter regulations and revamp testing methods.

The RDE norms will cover more of the actual driving conditions in India and reduce the gap between emissions during lab tests and real-world driving emissions. That’s important, and we also suggest that Indian policymakers work to set a timeline to phase out the conformity factors that are currently in place, as Europe has already done. Having a timeline will make clear to manufacturers that they will need to plan and make investments to produce compliant vehicles.

What is a conformity factor and where does it come from? Well, things like vehicle speed and ambient temperature are kept within a specific range during laboratory tests, to ensure they are replicable. However, as mentioned above, RDE testing will involve a range of conditions for various testing parameters, and some driving conditions that are typical of real-world use might not be covered under the RDE protocol. To conduct tests for those conditions, portable emissions measurement system (PEMS) testing is used. Due to uncertainties in the actual on-road driving conditions and with the PEMS instrumentation, real-world emissions are assessed more leniently than lab limits. The conformity factor is a scaling factor used to adjust the limits in the Bharat Stage 6 (BS 6) emission standards to allow higher emissions in real-world driving conditions than are allowed in the laboratory.

Does this mean that conformity factors allow vehicles to emit more than the emission standard? Yes. If the conformity factor for nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions is set at 1.43, that means the emissions from a vehicle during real-world driving can be 43% higher than the standard the vehicle must meet during laboratory testing. To reduce the time that higher emissions are allowed, European policymakers are set to reduce their conformity factors later this year and have proposed to eliminate them altogether in a couple of years. As Table 1 shows, Europe is proposing that by 2025, all on-road emissions from light-duty vehicles measured during RDE testing should not exceed the laboratory tests under the boundary conditions of the RDE standards.

Table 1. Comparison of conformity factors (CF) for NO_x and particle number (PN) between India and Europe

(a) In effect since April 1, 2023. (b) In effect for type-approval tests since January 2021. (c) Set to take effect for new type-approval tests in September 2023 and for all new vehicles in September 2024. (d) Proposed to take effect starting July 2025 for new LDVs.

India’s new RDE regulation will significantly impact diesel vehicles because those require aftertreatment technologies such as lean NO_x trap (LNT) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) to limit pollutant emissions during real-world driving. So far, manufacturers selling in India have used LNT, the cheaper option, on most models. But now that there is a need to also meet emission limits during real-world driving, LNT is at a disadvantage because the real-world emissions are significantly higher even after applying conformity factors. This happens because LNT is sensitive to changes in exhaust gas temperature, and such changes can impair the catalyst’s ability to store and decrease NO_x emissions, especially when temperatures vary greatly. SCR, the more expensive option, reduces emissions significantly but necessitates using a urea-based solution that must be stored aboard the vehicle and replenished regularly.

SCR technology has been shown to be highly successful in reducing NO_x emissions, even in difficult driving conditions like high-altitude or low-temperature environments, but cost is an issue. While most diesel SUVs in India have used this system since the BS 6 norms were introduced, cars with smaller diesel engines (those below 2.0 liters) have used an LNT system to control pollutants. If makers of the smaller vehicles replace the LNT with SCR, it’s unlikely they will be able to sell their vehicles at competitive prices, and some of the models are already being pulled from the market.

Still, phasing out compliance factors is necessary for the real-world emissions reductions that will contribute to a healthier environment in India. Automakers will need to plan to use technologies and strategies that do not rely on conformity criteria, and knowing when conformity factors will be phased out will signal to them to plan for the future by investing in effective technologies.

India’s RDE norms will also bring in stricter compliance and enforcement, and manufacturers might be obligated to conduct a recall or take other corrective measures to bring a vehicle back into compliance if it is discovered to generate more pollution than laws permit. Such policies ensure that automobiles meet emissions requirements throughout their lifetimes, rather than only during initial laboratory testing. This is particularly important because cars lose efficiency and produce more pollutants as they age.

Overall, the introduction of RDE testing is expected to lead to better monitoring of vehicle emissions, increase the quality of vehicles being sold, and reduce the scope for manufacturers to evade accountability for emissions. Bringing the conformity factors to 1 would do even more to reduce air pollution and improve public health outcomes in India. Due to the cost of compliance for manufacturers, vehicle models that cannot satisfy RDE requirements without more expensive technology are likely to be discontinued.

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Berlin, 22 March 2023— “Suspicious” nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emission levels were found in at least 77% of tests performed on diesel cars in Europe. These excess emissions indicate the “likely use” of an engine calibration strategy that may now be classified as a prohibited defeat device based on recent rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU).

A new study, carried out by the non-profit research organization International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and published today, assesses the magnitude of “suspicious” and “extreme” emission levels shown in post-Dieselgate testing performed by government and independent organizations since 2016. The emission levels are defined based on expected emission behavior for given types of tests.

Approximately 53 million diesel cars were sold in Europe from 2009 to 2019, emitting high levels of NO_x, a hazardous air pollutant that poses a significant risk to human health. A companion analysis by the ICCT estimates that 19 million vehicles with “suspicious” emissions remain in use today – of these, 13 million vehicles were models showing “extreme” emissions. The issue of excess NO_x emissions is prevalent across manufacturers.

According to the investigation, not only did a large majority of tests (85% for Euro 5 and 77% for Euro 6 diesel cars) show “suspicious” excess emissions, but also many showed “extreme” emission levels. “Extreme” emission levels were found in at least 40% of official tests of diesel cars, indicating the “almost certain” presence of a calibration strategy that may now be considered a prohibited defeat device.

The ICCT also assessed data collected through past remote sensing campaigns, which measure the real-world emissions of vehicles from the roadside as drivers pass. The data, consisting of 700,000 measurements in five European countries, showed that approximately 75% of diesel car engine families’ emission averages were found to exceed the “extreme” threshold.

“It is difficult to dispute what is a large amount of analyzed data and testing collected from multiple sources. All of them point in the same direction. After the CJEU rulings, these results present a solid body of evidence for authorities to investigate and potentially take corrective action to address health risks posed by European diesel cars driven on our roads”, says Peter Mock, ICCT’s Europe Managing Director.

A defeat device is a software code installed in the vehicle to alter or deactivate the emissions control system under certain operating conditions. The use of defeat devices was at the center of the 2015 Dieselgate scandal.

European courts continue to review evidence from related cases. In a ruling released in December 2020, the CJEU clarified the conditions under which defeat devices are prohibited, even for vehicles sold prior to the decision. It stated that “only immediate risks of damage which create a specific hazard when the vehicle is driven… justify the use of a defeat device” (C-693/18). The judges broadly limited the scope of exemptions. Additional CJEU rulings in July 2022 further clarified that defeat devices cannot be justified in any event if they operate throughout most of the year during normal driving conditions.

“The levels of emissions found in the tests offer wide-ranging data to estimate the prevalence of prohibited defeat devices. What we found is that vehicles surpassing the “extreme” threshold is a red flag and should pose questions about the rationale for their emission behavior. A total of 150 vehicle models show emissions above it and represent about 13 million vehicles still on the road in the EU-27 and UK,” stated Yoann Bernard, Senior Researcher at the ICCT.

The ICCT report also analyzed the statements presented by manufacturers during investigations conducted by national market surveillance in four European countries. From these statements, the ICCT identified 66 vehicle models that used calibration strategies that are now considered prohibited defeat devices based on the latest CJEU rulings because they function during normal driving conditions. Most of these vehicle models (48) use emission calibration strategies that alter or deactivate the emissions control system in low ambient temperatures which are typical within the EU.

EU law mandates that Member States have the responsibility to investigate cases of potential defeat devices and to require manufacturers to take corrective action if a prohibited defeat device is found. The 2020 ruling from the CJEU still applies in the UK as retained EU law, and therefore must inform the UK government’s interpretation of rules prohibiting the use of defeat devices.

Since the Dieselgate scandal, only some manufacturers have performed recalls and updates of diesel cars in Europe. The impact of these updates is unclear as many vehicles have not been retested, or the testing results have not been released publicly.

Air pollution continues to be the biggest environmental health hazard in Europe. Diesel vehicles are a major contributor, largely due to high NO_x emissions. In the region, 35,400 premature deaths were linked to on-road diesel vehicle emissions in 2015 or 14% of all air pollution-related premature deaths.

– end –

Note to the editors:

The “extreme” threshold indicates a level of emissions so far in excess of regulatory limits that explanations for it other than the presence of a defeat device are highly unlikely. Circumstances that could lead to extreme emissions without a defeat device could exist, such as undetected individual vehicle malfunctions, undetected aftertreatment system regeneration during the test, measurement instrument malfunctions, or a widespread malfunction across a vehicle family. Such conditions are exceedingly rare, but always theoretically possible. To acknowledge the remaining small degree of uncertainty, we, therefore, conclude that tests and vehicle models crossing the extreme threshold indicate that the use of a defeat device is almost, but not perfectly, certain.

Media contact
Susana Irles, susana.irles@theicct.org

Publication details
Reassessment of excess NOx from diesel cars in Europe following the Court Justice of the European Union rulingsAuthors: Michelle Meyer, Yoann Bernard, John German, Tim Dallmann

Factsheet:
Available in English, German, French, Spanish, and Italian.

Blog post: It’s time for Europe to address diesel defeat devices once and for all

Please use this link when citing the report.

About the International Council on Clean Transportation

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

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Acknowledgments
The ICCT thanks ClientEarth for providing legal expertise that helped to shape the scope of the report’s analysis and for valuable discussions regarding Court of Justice of the European Union rulings on defeat devices. For more details on ClientEarth’s work in this area, please visit: https://www.clientearth.org/

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“Suspicious” NOx emission levels were found in 77%–100% of tests and vehicle averages, indicating the likely use of a prohibited defeat device. Of 1,400 total tests conducted under controlled settings by government authorities, 85% of tests on Euro 5 vehicles and 77% of tests on pre-RDE Euro 6 vehicles exceed the suspicious emissions threshold. Similar rates are observed for government tests conducted under real-world conditions. Results from independent real-world testing show that up to 100% of vehicle model averages exceed the suspicious threshold.

“Extreme” NOx emissions were found in 40%–75% of tests and vehicle averages, indicating that a prohibited defeat device is almost certainly present. Approximately 42% of the 1,400 official government tests under controlled settings exceed the extreme threshold. Real-world testing by government authorities and independent bodies shows similar or higher rates of extreme emissions. Remote sensing data show that approximately 75% of engine family averages exceed the extreme threshold.

Over 200 unique vehicle models show high NOx emissions above the “suspicious” threshold and over 150 unique vehicle models show NOx emissions above the “extreme” threshold. Nearly all vehicle models tested by official government authorities show suspicious emissions in at least one test, and nearly 70% of vehicle models showed extreme emissions in at least one test.

Fact sheets: In English, Auf Deutsch, En Français, In Italiano, En Español
Blog post
Press release

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In 2016, the ICCT’s John German wrote how the use of defeat devices extends beyond Volkswagen, concluding that EU regulations need to establish a clear and explicit definition of defeat devices to fully address the issue. Recently, the Court Justice of the European Union (CJEU) did just that, clarifying in four rulings what constitutes a prohibited defeat device. Many of these prohibited strategies were common among diesel car manufacturers before the Real Driving Emissions (RDE) testing procedure was introduced, offering grounds for reinvestigating diesel cars showing high NOx emissions.

A new ICCT report reassesses emissions testing results to estimate the prevalence of prohibited defeat devices in pre-RDE diesel cars sold from 2009 to 2019 in Europe, looking at data from official government laboratory and real-world testing, independent testing, and an extensive database of remote sensing measurements. The analysis found that “suspicious” levels of NOx emissions were shown in at least 77% of official government tests and in up to 100% of vehicles in independent testing and remote sensing data, indicating the likely use of a prohibited defeat device. Of the 219 unique vehicle models tested, 209 showed suspicious emissions in at least one test. Over two thirds of the vehicle models tested showed “extreme” emissions, indicating that a defeat device is almost certainly present.

Over 200 unique vehicle models showing evidence of the likely use of a prohibited defeat device is a lot, but what does this mean in terms of the numbers of vehicles sold and those still operating today? Using market statistics compiled by the ICCT, we estimate in total, approximately 53 million diesel cars certified to the Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 standards were sold in the EU and UK. Using a conservative estimate and considering only the vehicles tested by official government authorities, approximately 24 million diesel cars sold show suspicious emissions – of these, 16.3 million diesel cars sold show extreme emissions. The breakdown by country is shown below in Figure 1. These numbers would be higher if government authorities widened their testing to investigate more vehicle models, such as the 60 additional vehicle models showing suspicious emissions in independent testing and remote sensing.

A large majority of these vehicles are still driven today. Using methods from ICCT’s ROADMAP model to determine likely fleet turnover, we estimate that 19.1 million vehicles showing suspicious emissions are currently in use – of these, 13.0 million vehicles show extreme emissions.

Figure 1. Total number of sold and remaining diesel Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 cars showing suspicious and extreme emissions by EU member state + UK

Our review shows that the issue of high NOx emissions is prevalent across manufacturers, as illustrated in Figure 2 below. As the largest manufacturer of diesel cars in Europe, Volkswagen Group produced the largest number of vehicles showings suspicious emissions. However, several other manufacturers sold millions of vehicles showing suspicious and extreme emissions. For example, Renault-Nissan sold over 4 million vehicles showing extreme emissions. As a percentage of total sales, nearly all manufacturer groups sold higher shares of vehicles showing extreme emissions compared to Volkswagen Group.

Figure 2. Total sales of diesel Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 cars showing suspicious and extreme emissions by manufacturer group, 2009-2019

The top ten most popular vehicle models that show extreme emissions in official government testing collectively account for approximately 4.5 million sales (Figure 3). Nearly all of these models also show extreme emissions in independent real-world testing or remote sensing. Three of the top ten models showing extreme emissions are manufactured by Volkswagen Group and use EA189 engines, which were subject to mandatory software updates but still showed emissions well above the regulatory limit after the recalls.

Figure 3. Top diesel Euro 5 and pre-RDE Euro 6 passenger car models, 2009-2019, showing extreme emissions and their total sales in the EU-27 and UK

Evidence began to illuminate the issue of high diesel NOx emissions during real-world driving over eight years ago, and this reassessment of emissions data helps show even more clearly just how widespread the likely use of prohibited defeat devices is. Although corrective action has been limited to date, there have been important responses to the evidence showing widespread excess NOx emissions from diesel cars. The recently announced Euro 7 regulation introduces more comprehensive testing requirements, which will help improve the enforcement of real-world emissions. At a city level, low-emission zones have been implemented across Europe to address air quality by targeting diesel cars and other high-emitting vehicle groups.

But these measures alone cannot clean up the tens of millions of diesel cars that continue to emit NOx emissions several times above the legal limit. Now that the CJEU rulings have removed a huge barrier to defeat device enforcement, it’s time for EU member states and the UK to fully address the issue of excess NOx from diesel cars.

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Changes discussed include the adjustment of the utility factor to better reflect the real-world emissions of vehicles, and, for real-driving emission tests, the reduction of emission conformity factors and the extension of the ambient temperature range. In addition, the update reviews new provisions of in-service conformity checks by independent entities and describes the additional requirement of an indicator for the activation of auxiliary emission strategies.

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