The EU introduced the first CO₂ standards in 2009. This legislation sets CO₂ emission reduction targets for manufacturers on new cars and vans. Figure 1 illustrates the historical average of emissions values and targets.

Figure 1. Historical average CO₂ emission values and targets of new passenger cars without flexible compliance mechanisms under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) test procedure and the subsequent Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). The 2021–2024 line corresponds to the WLTP-specific emissions reference target for 2021, calculated as the average of the WLTP-specific emissions reference targets of all manufacturers.

From 2000 to 2007, before the standards were in place, fleet CO₂ emissions declined by 1.9 g/km per year on average. From 2008, manufacturers outperformed the annual reduction rates required to meet the 2015 target of 130 g/km. However, without more stringent targets before 2020, the trend was reversed and average CO₂ emissions increased by 0.7 g/km per year over the next four years. Only in 2020 did the new target lead to a steep decline of 14 g/km compared to 2019. The decline continued over the next two years, but not at the same rate: the 6 g/km CO₂ reduction from 2021 to 2022 was less than half the reduction from 2020 to 2021.

As an update to 2021’s briefing, this paper details the manufacturer’s 2022 CO₂ emissions performance and presents the market share of fuel types and powertrain technologies by manufacturer and EU Member State. It also discusses flexible compliance mechanisms.

Of the 9.48 million new passenger cars represented in the 2022 preliminary EEA dataset, more than one million were electric vehicles. Manufacturers relied primarily on battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to meet their targets, with CO₂ emissions of combustion engine vehicles, mild hybrid vehicles, and full hybrid vehicles remaining, on average, at the same level.

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Highlights governments with official targets to 100% phase in sales of zero CO₂ emission buses by a certain date. Status: Through October 2023.

The post Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Medium- and heavy-duty buses (October 2023) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The post Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Medium- and heavy-duty trucks (October 2023) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Highlights governments with official targets to 100% phase in sales of new zero CO₂ emission cars and vans/light trucks by a certain date. Status: Through October 2023.

The post Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Passenger cars and vans/light trucks (October 2023) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Berlin, 31 January – The average gap, or divergence, between the official and real-world fuel consumption and CO₂ emission values of passenger cars in Europe has grown again despite the introduction of a new vehicle test procedure. The gap reached a level of 14% in 2022, i.e. real-world emission levels were 14% higher than advertised by manufacturers. The gap has grown 80% in five years, going up from a level of 8% in 2018. If not addressed, this trend will compromise the effectiveness of the EU’s CO₂ reduction targets. It will also lead to false consumer expectations about real-world fuel consumption as well as the associated costs and environmental impact.

The results are based on an investigation by the nonprofit research organization International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). The study analyzes official CO₂ emission data, a proxy for fuel consumption, reported by the European Environment Agency (EEA), combined with real-world fuel consumption information from more than 160,000 combustion engine and conventional hybrid cars reported by consumers on the spritmonitor.de website. (Plug-in hybrid cars were analyzed separately in a previous report.)

Official CO₂ emission values are determined through measurements in a controlled laboratory environment. In 2017, a new test procedure, the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), replaced the former New European Drive Cycle (NEDC). While the new WLTP values are more representative of real-world values than their predecessor—and consequently lowered the gap from 33% in 2018 to 8% in the same year—, the gap is now growing again. While official fuel consumption and CO₂ emission values dropped by about 7.3% between 2018 and 2022, the reduction achieved on the road was less than one-third, with only 2.3%.

Gap or divergence between real-world and type-approval CO₂ emission values of NEDC and WLTP type-approved internal combustion engine and hybrid passenger cars registered in Germany. Data sources: European Environmental Agency (EEA) and spritmonitor.de

Jan Dornoff, Research Lead at the ICCT and co-author of the report, emphasizes, “Our analysis shows that the real-world gap is growing again, after the introduction of WLTP. Without counteraction, official CO₂ emission values will become increasingly unrepresentative of real-world values, and mandatory reductions for official values will not be reflected in the actual CO₂ emissions. This will undermine the EU’s efforts to reduce transport-related CO₂ emissions and result in consumers paying more for fuel than anticipated.”

To prevent the gap from growing, the European Commission is mandated by the CO₂ standards regulation to assess the development of a mechanism or process. This mechanism would adjust the manufacturers’ CO₂ emission performance based on real-world data recorded by on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring (OBFCM) devices. The ICCT study proposes a correction mechanism that would compensate for excess CO₂ emissions released due to a growing gap.

“The ICCT has been monitoring these disparities since the early 2010s, and fortunately, EU regulators now have appropriate tools to correct these divergences with transparent and reliable data. Using these tools, a correction mechanism can ensure that the CO₂ emissions reduction targets that manufacturers must meet in the coming years are proportionally updated in accordance with the intended original stringency written into the law,” recommends Dr. Peter Mock, ICCT Europe’s Managing Director.

Additionally, on-board fuel consumption data could benefit consumers by providing real-world estimates of emissions and fuel consumption on vehicle efficiency labels. Furthermore, the authors suggest making anonymized OBFCM data, merged with relevant vehicle characteristics, publicly available to facilitate independent research using representative real-world fuel and energy consumption data.

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Media contact
Susana Irles, susana.irles@theicct.org
+49 (0) 302 332 68412

Publication details
Title: On the way to ‘real-world’ CO₂ values? The European passenger car market after 5 years of WLTP
Authors: Jan Dornoff, Victor Valverde Morales, Uwe Tietge

Please use this link when citing this report: https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-CO2-emission-values-vehicles-Europe-jan24

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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The post The gap between real-world and official values for CO2 emissions and fuel consumption grows again despite new test procedure  appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Berlin, 31. Januar – Die Differenz zwischen Herstellerangaben und tatsächlichem Kraftstoffverbrauch bzw. CO₂-Emissionen von Pkw hat sich trotz Einführung eines neuen Fahrzeugprüfverfahrens erneut vergrößert. 2022 lag sie für in Deutschland zugelassene PKW im Durchschnitt bei 14 Prozent, das heißt, die Werte im realen Betrieb waren um 14 Prozent höher als von den Herstellern angegeben. 2018 lag die Differenz noch bei durchschnittlich 8 Prozent, somit ist sie innerhalb von fünf Jahren um 80 Prozent gewachsen. Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen gefährdet dieser Trend die Wirksamkeit der CO₂-Reduktionsmaßnahmen der EU. Zudem führt er bei den Verbrauchern zu falschen Erwartungen in Bezug auf den tatsächlichen Kraftstoffverbrauch und die damit verbundenen Kosten und Umweltauswirkungen.

Das sind zentrale Ergebnisse einer Studie der gemeinnützigen Forschungsorganisation International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). Die Experten haben offizielle CO₂ -Emissionsdaten der Europäischen Umweltagentur (EEA) als Maß für den Kraftstoffverbrauch analysiert und mit realen Kraftstoffverbrauchsdaten von mehr als 160.000 Fahrzeugen verglichen. Dabei handelt es sich um Verbrenner- und konventionelle Hybridfahrzeuge, deren Eigentümer ihre Verbrauchsdaten auf der Website spritmonitor.de hinterlegt haben. (Plug-in-Hybride wurden in einer früheren Studie separat analysiert).

Offizielle CO₂ Emissionswerte werden in einer kontrollierten Laborumgebung ermittelt. 2017 wurde dafür das neue Prüfverfahren Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) eingeführt, das den früheren Neuen Europäischen Fahrzyklus (NEFZ) ablöste. Die WLTP-Werte sind repräsentativer als die des NEFZ, weshalb die Differenz zwischen Labor- und realen Werten zunächst von 33 Prozent im Jahr 2018 auf 8 Prozent im gleichen Jahr schrumpfte. Die aktuellen Zahlen zeigen allerdings, dass sich der Abstand jetzt wieder vergrößert. Die Folge: Offiziell sind die CO₂-Emissionswerte zwischen 2018 und 2022 um rund 7,3 Prozent gesunken, im Realbetrieb auf der Straße bleibt von der erzielten Reduktion aber mit 2,3 Prozent nur weniger als ein Drittel übrig.

Abweichung zwischen realen und nach NEFZ bzw. WLTP typgenehmigten CO₂ Emissionswerten von in Deutschland zugelassenen Pkw. Datenquellen: Europäische Umweltagentur (EEA) und spritmonitor.de

“Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass die Differenz zwischen den offiziellen Angaben und den realen CO₂ Emissionen auch nach Einführung von WLTP wieder wächst“, sagt Jan Dornoff, leitender Wissenschaftler beim ICCT und Mitverfasser des Berichts. „Wird hier nicht gegengesteuert, verlieren die offiziellen CO₂-Emissionswerte zunehmend an Aussagekraft für die tatsächlichen Emissionen. So kommen dann auch die verpflichtend vorgesehenen Reduktionen der offiziellen Werte nicht in der realen Welt an. Das untergräbt die Bemühungen der EU zur Verringerung der verkehrsbedingten CO₂ -Emissionen und führt dazu, dass die Verbraucher mehr für Kraftstoff bezahlen müssen als erwartet.”

Um diese negativen Folgen zu verhindern, ist die Europäische Kommission durch die CO₂-Verordnung aufgefordert, die Entwicklung eines Mechanismus zu prüfen, der ein Wachstum des Abstandes zwischen realen und offiziellen CO₂-Emissionen verhindert. Dazu sollen reale Kraftstoffverbrauchsdaten herangezogen werden, die mit so genannten OBFCM-Geräten (on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring devices) erfasst und aufgezeichnet werden. Die ICCT-Experten schlagen in ihrer Studie einen Korrekturmechanismus vor, der die durch die Abweichung der realen von den offiziellen Werten verursachten zusätzlichen CO₂-Emissionen ausgleichen würde.

“Wir beobachten die wachsende Differenz zwischen angegebenen und tatsächlichen Kraftstoffverbräuchen seit Anfang der 2010er Jahre“, sagt Dr. Peter Mock, Geschäftsführer des ICCT Europe. „Zum Glück verfügen die EU-Regulierungsbehörden jetzt über geeignete Instrumente, um diese Abweichungen auf Basis transparenter und zuverlässiger Daten auszugleichen. Damit lässt sich ein Korrekturmechanismus einrichten, der sicherstellt, dass die offiziellen CO₂-Emissionswerte, die die Hersteller in den kommenden Jahren erfüllen müssen, so aktualisiert werden, dass sie auch real den ursprünglich beabsichtigten und gesetzlich festgeschriebenen Minderungszielen entsprechen.“

Darüber hinaus könnten On-Board-Kraftstoffverbrauchsdaten auch als Basis dienen, um Verbraucher besser und realistischer über die Kosten und Umweltauswirkungen von Fahrzeugen zu informieren. Zudem schlagen die Autoren vor, OBFCM-Daten anonymisiert und ergänzt um relevante Fahrzeugmerkmale öffentlich zugänglich zu machen, um unabhängige Forschung mit repräsentativen realen Kraftstoff- und Energieverbrauchsdaten zu ermöglichen.

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Medienkontakt
Susana Irles, susana.irles@theicct.org
+49 (0) 302 332 68412

Details zur Veröffentlichung
Titel: On the way to ‘real-world’ CO₂ values? The European passenger car market after 5 years of WLTP
Autoren: Jan Dornoff, Victor Valverde Morales, Uwe Tietge

Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, wenn Sie den Bericht zitieren: https://theicct.org/publication/real-world-CO2-emission-values-vehicles-Europe-jan24

Über den International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
Der International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) ist eine unabhängige, gemeinnützige Forschungsorganisation, die gegründet wurde, um spezialisierte, objektive und bedarfsgerechte Forschung sowie technische und wissenschaftliche Analysen für Umweltbehörden bereitzustellen. Unsere Arbeit unterstützt politische und andere Entscheidungsträger auf der ganzen Welt dabei, die Umweltverträglichkeit des Straßen-, See- und Luftverkehrs zu verbessern, mit dem Ziel die öffentliche Gesundheit zu fördern und den Klimawandel abzuschwächen. Unsere Zusammenarbeit als Gruppe gleichgesinnter politischer Entscheidungsträger und technischer Experten wurde 2005 mit dem Status einer gemeinnützigen Nichtregierungsorganisation formal geregelt.

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The post Trotz neuem Prüfverfahren: Offizielle und reale Emissions- und Verbrauchswerte von Pkw klaffen erneut auseinander appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Figure 1 shows that the official WLTP type-approval CO₂ emission values are more representative of real-world values than the ones from the previous NEDC test procedure. Our analysis shows a divergence of 7.7% for WLTP in 2018 compared to 32.7% for NEDC. However, the gap between real-world and official CO₂ emissions increased by over 80% in the 5 years since the introduction of the WLTP, reaching 14.1% in 2022.

Figure 1. Divergence between real-world and type-approval CO₂ emission values for internal combustion engine and hybrid passenger cars registered in Germany. Data sources: European Environmental Agency (EEA) and spritmonitor.de

This growing gap diminishes the effectiveness of the European Union’s CO₂ standards in reducing tailpipe CO₂ emissions from cars and vans. This is because CO₂ reduction goals are implemented by setting lower targets for official CO₂ emissions. The growing gap between official and real-world emission values, however, leads to a lower reduction in real-world CO₂ emissions than intended by the regulators.

Figure 2 compares the reduction in official versus real-world CO₂ emissions between 2009 and 2022. While official CO2 emission values decreased by 19.5%,real-world emissions decreased by only 5.8% over the same period due to the growing gap.

Figure 2. Reduction of internal combustion engine and hybrid car type-approval and real-world CO₂ emissions since the adoption of CO₂ standards in the EU in 2009 and 2022. WLTP CO₂ emissions in 2022 were converted to NEDC-equivalent values using a conversion factor of 1.21.

The analysis is based on official CO₂ emission data reported by the European Environment Agency (EEA) combined with real-world fuel-consumption information from more than 160,000 combustion engine and conventional hybrid cars reported by consumers on the spritmonitor.de platform.

The European Commission has been tasked through the CO₂ standards regulation with developing a mechanism or process that prevents this gap from growing. For this purpose, real-world fuel consumption data recorded by on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring (OBFCM) devices should be used. However, while the availability of OBFCM data will allow the implementation of such a mechanism by 2027, regulators foresee this measure starting in 2030.

Based on the analysis, the authors offer the following recommendations to prevent the gap from growing and mitigate excess CO₂ emissions caused by a growing gap, using reliable and transparent data:

• The European Commission could develop a mechanism that prevents further growth of the gap, and a proposal for such a mechanism is provided in this paper. The described mechanism intends to both mitigate the growing gap and compensate for the excess real-world CO2 emissions released prior to the introduction of a correction mechanism.
• The availability of OBFCM real-world consumption data would support applying the correction mechanism starting in 2027.
• Real-world fuel consumption estimates could be displayed on vehicle efficiency labels for consumers.
• Anonymized OBFCM data could be made publicly available.
• OBFCM could be made mandatory for electric vehicles to ensure the availability of real-world energy consumption data.

Read more in our press release in German and English.

The post  On the way to ‘real-world’ CO2 values? The European passenger car market after 5 years of WLTP appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Speakers

Amit Bhatt

India Managing Director, ICCT

Amit Bhatt is the ICCT’s Managing Director for India. He is based in New Delhi and has over 20 years of experience in transportation, urban development, and management. Before joining ICCT, Amit was Executive Director for Integrated Transport at WRI India for 12 years. Prior to the World Resources Institute he worked with the Urban Mass Transit Company, India’s leading urban transport consultancy, and with Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services. He has also served as an adjunct faculty member at the School of Planning and Architecture in New Delhi.

Amit has a bachelor’s degree in architecture and a master’s degree in transport planning from the School of Planning and Architecture, New Delhi. Amit also has a master’s degree in economics and a diploma in transport economics and management.

Vaibhav Kush

Researcher, ICCT

Vaibhav Kush is a Researcher with ICCT’s India team, leading the Low Emission Zones work there. He engages with sub-national administrations to accelerate adoption of Low- and Zero Emission Zones in India. He has been working in the Sustainable Mobility sector since 2016, with expertise in safe systems, policy formulation and stakeholder engagements. Before joining ICCT, Vaibhav was associated with WRI India’s Sustainable Cities program for over six years, leading projects under Botnar CRS Challenge. He was actively involved in Haryana Vision Zero, pedestrianisation of Delhi’s Chandni Chowk, development of IRC guidelines on urban transport, etc. Prior to WRI India, Vaibhav has worked as an Architect and was involved in the design of large scale green building projects like corporate parks, Inter-container Depots, universities, etc.

Vaibhav has a bachelor’s in Architecture and a Master’s in Urban Planning from the School of Planning and Architecture, Delhi. He is a member of several professional bodies including International Sociological Association, Institute of Town Planners India, Council of Architecture, Indian Roads Congress, Indian Institute of Architects, Indian Buildings Congress, among others.

Sudhendu J. Sinha

Adviser, NITI Aayog

An alumnus of St. Stephen’s College, Delhi did his Major in History. He has experience of over 29 years in operations, infrastructure planning, coordination and management at field and policy making levels in Indian Railways with considerable success and appreciation.

His performance has been recognised and awarded twice at the National level (National Award for e-Governance- 2019-20, for ‘Excellence in providing Citizen – Centric Delivery’ by Department of Administrative Reforms and Public Grievances, Govt. of India, ‘National Award for Outstanding Service’ Ministry of Railways Govt. of India -2006) and thrice at the Ministry (of Railways) level. He also served as Dean of the Indian Railway Institute of Transport Management (IRITM), Lucknow, and General Manager Web Applications at the Centre for Railway Information Systems (CRIS). He has training and enrichment from Japan (Railway Management), Malaysia (ICLIF – Advance Management), Singapore (INSEAD – Advance Management), Germany (UIC) and the US (Oracle).

He is the Adviser at the NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transformation of India), the apex ‘Think Tank’ of the Govt. of India.

 

The post National Workshop on Low-emission Zones in Cities appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The latest findings from the 2023/24 report indicate a sustained decline in vehicle sales across the EU market. This trend has persisted since the peak in 2019, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing a setback in sales growth. In 2021, sales continued to contract, falling by 3% compared to the previous year and plummeting by 26% in comparison to the 2019 peak.

In terms of the electric car market, the report highlights a stabilization in early 2023, following a remarkable period of growth. In 2022, the EU’s electric passenger car market share reached 22%, establishing a significant presence. While this exceeded the United States, which registered a 7% market share, the EU still trailed behind China, where electric vehicles accounted for a substantial 32% of the market.

Moreover, the report underscores noteworthy progress in reducing carbon emissions. Average CO2 emissions from new passenger cars, as assessed using the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), declined to 110 g/km in 2022 within the European Economic Area. This marked a notable decrease of approximately 6 g/km when compared to the emissions recorded in 2021.

Other select highlights from the 2023/24 edition include:

• The electric car market made a significant leap from 3% market share in 2019 to 22% in 2022. However, growth temporarily slowed in early 2023, influenced by factors such as the expiration of government incentives and supply constraints.
• Leading the battery electric car segment in the European Economic Area are Norway (65%), the Netherlands (20%), and Sweden (19%). Larger EU vehicle markets, including Germany (14%), France (9%), Italy (5%), and Spain (3%), are adopting electric vehicles at varying rates.
• Norway and the Netherlands owe part of their electric car market success to extensive charging infrastructure. Norway boasted 14.5 publicly accessible charging points per thousand passenger vehicles in 2021, over seven times the EU average, followed closely by the Netherlands with eight charging points.

The post European Vehicle Market Statistics – Pocketbook 2023/24 appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.